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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA-NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES / SACRAMENTO CA
930 AM PLT SUN MAY 5 2024
CHPS/ESP RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
See www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/water_resources_update.php for additional information
APRIL-JULY STREAMFLOW VOLUMES IN 1000AF (SRC=E)
05/05 05/04 05/02 04/28 04/21
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WMSO3 10%: 236 248 267 258 238
WILLIAMSON RIVER 90%: 208 210 232 223 207
CHILOQUIN PROB: 217 221 244 238 218
OBS: 101 98 91 77 51
(AVG: 275) %AVG: 79% 80% 89% 87% 79%
DELTA: -2% -10% -8% -0%
FTJC1 10%: 199 195 201 207 217
SCOTT RIVER 90%: 172 170 166 166 170
FORT JONES PROB: 181 179 177 179 182
OBS: 81 79 74 66 44
(AVG: 162) %AVG: 112% 111% 110% 111% 112%
DELTA: 1% 2% 1% -0%
CEGC1 10%: 756 760 780 825 841
TRINITY 90%: 693 684 678 670 684
TRINITY LK PROB: 712 709 709 698 720
OBS: 304 291 272 241 163
(AVG: 565) %AVG: 126% 126% 126% 124% 128%
DELTA: 1% 1% 3% -1%
SHDC1 10%: 1721 1788 1820 1811 1847
SACRAMENTO 90%: 1567 1558 1561 1511 1486
SHASTA PROB: 1610 1633 1634 1571 1572
OBS: 705 680 647 578 439
(AVG: 1693) %AVG: 95% 96% 97% 93% 93%
DELTA: -1% -1% 2% 2%
ORDC1 10%: 2109 2077 1997 1934 1945
FEATHER 90%: 1858 1788 1729 1615 1592
OROVILLE PROB: 1910 1892 1800 1691 1706
OBS: 982 948 903 796 554
(AVG: 1496) %AVG: 128% 126% 120% 113% 114%
DELTA: 1% 7% 15% 14%
05/05 05/04 05/02 04/28 04/21
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HLEC1 10%: 1037 1065 1077 985 1020
YUBA 90%: 908 886 872 827 821
ENGLEBRIGHT PROB: 938 938 919 873 900
OBS: 416 399 373 323 208
(AVG: 926) %AVG: 101% 101% 99% 94% 97%
DELTA: -0% 2% 7% 4%
FOLC1 10%: 1430 1464 1439 1398 1400
AMERICAN 90%: 1233 1210 1210 1145 1136
FOLSOM PROB: 1294 1302 1293 1226 1258
OBS: 579 557 525 461 309
(AVG: 1166) %AVG: 111% 112% 111% 105% 108%
DELTA: -1% 0% 6% 3%
CMPC1 10%: 468 506 493 495 492
MOKELUMNE 90%: 415 425 421 400 406
PARDEE PROB: 434 445 447 429 444
OBS: 180 174 163 138 84
(AVG: 431) %AVG: 101% 103% 104% 100% 103%
DELTA: -2% -3% 1% -2%
NMSC1 10%: 780 807 797 792 797
STANISLAUS 90%: 677 688 682 651 663
NEW MELONES PROB: 708 723 716 693 712
OBS: 316 305 284 245 151
(AVG: 653) %AVG: 108% 111% 110% 106% 109%
DELTA: -2% -1% 2% -1%
NDPC1 10%: 1419 1437 1404 1418 1483
TUOLUMNE 90%: 1268 1252 1241 1188 1206
NEW DON PEDRO PROB: 1312 1306 1294 1248 1294
OBS: 436 418 392 334 206
(AVG: 1175) %AVG: 112% 111% 110% 106% 110%
DELTA: 1% 2% 5% 2%
05/05 05/04 05/02 04/28 04/21
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POHC1 10%: 461 467 452 457 470
MERCED RIVER 90%: 424 410 413 397 405
POHONO BRIDGE PROB: 436 430 430 417 427
OBS: 132 126 114 93 49
(AVG: 372) %AVG: 117% 116% 116% 112% 115%
DELTA: 2% 2% 5% 2%
EXQC1 10%: 686 697 679 688 710
MERCED 90%: 633 615 616 596 608
EXCHEQUER PROB: 648 644 638 626 644
OBS: 241 230 212 175 110
(AVG: 593) %AVG: 109% 109% 108% 106% 109%
DELTA: 1% 2% 4% 1%
FRAC1 10%: 1435 1434 1435 1398 1454
SAN JOAQUIN 90%: 1288 1273 1270 1223 1235
MILLERTON PROB: 1342 1336 1324 1285 1316
OBS: 417 398 362 300 186
(AVG: 1201) %AVG: 112% 111% 110% 107% 110%
DELTA: 1% 2% 5% 2%
PFTC1 10%: 1255 1264 1230 1184 1239
KINGS 90%: 1145 1139 1117 1084 1081
PINE FLAT PROB: 1178 1190 1153 1122 1127
OBS: 335 319 287 232 126
(AVG: 1183) %AVG: 100% 101% 97% 95% 95%
DELTA: -1% 2% 5% 4%
TMDC1 10%: 291 308 295 281 298
KAWEAH 90%: 262 267 257 250 245
LK KAWEAH PROB: 270 279 272 261 264
OBS: 93 90 82 69 41
(AVG: 272) %AVG: 99% 102% 100% 96% 97%
DELTA: -3% -1% 3% 2%
05/05 05/04 05/02 04/28 04/21
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SCSC1 10%: 67 72 68 65 71
TULE 90%: 64 64 63 61 61
LK SUCCESS PROB: 64 65 64 62 62
OBS: 38 37 35 30 21
(AVG: 58) %AVG: 112% 113% 111% 107% 108%
DELTA: -1% 1% 4% 4%
ISAC1 10%: 518 536 510 508 531
KERN 90%: 474 472 469 466 463
LK ISABELLA PROB: 496 494 489 486 484
OBS: 142 137 125 105 64
(AVG: 439) %AVG: 113% 113% 111% 111% 110%
DELTA: 0% 2% 2% 3%
BCAC1 10%: 86 86 85 84 84
LITTLE TRUCKEE 90%: 74 72 71 70 69
BOCA PROB: 78 78 78 74 77
OBS: 34 32 30 26 16
(AVG: 80) %AVG: 98% 98% 98% 93% 97%
DELTA: 0% 0% 5% 1%
FARC1 10%: 281 281 279 277 269
TRUCKEE RIVER 90%: 249 245 242 239 235
FARAD PROB: 257 258 256 248 256
OBS: 103 99 92 78 48
(AVG: 258) %AVG: 100% 100% 99% 96% 99%
DELTA: -0% 1% 4% 1%
WOOC1 10%: 53 55 56 55 57
WF CARSON RIVER 90%: 45 46 45 44 46
WOODFORDS PROB: 48 51 50 48 51
OBS: 18 17 16 13 8
(AVG: 53) %AVG: 90% 96% 95% 92% 96%
DELTA: -6% -4% -1% -6%
05/05 05/04 05/02 04/28 04/21
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GRDN2 10%: 186 192 193 183 194
EF CARSON RIVER 90%: 158 160 159 152 152
GARDNERVILLE PROB: 164 171 169 161 170
OBS: 60 58 53 45 25
(AVG: 184) %AVG: 89% 93% 92% 88% 92%
DELTA: -4% -3% 2% -3%
STWN2 10%: 182 187 190 175 188
CARSON RIVER 90%: 149 153 150 140 141
CARSON CITY PROB: 157 163 160 151 160
OBS: 68 65 60 50 30
(AVG: 177) %AVG: 89% 92% 91% 86% 90%
DELTA: -4% -2% 3% -2%
FTCN2 10%: 169 174 177 163 174
CARSON RIVER 90%: 137 140 138 130 129
FORT CHURCHILL PROB: 144 151 148 141 146
OBS: 61 59 55 46 26
(AVG: 168) %AVG: 86% 90% 88% 84% 87%
DELTA: -4% -2% 2% -1%
WWBC1 10%: 154 162 155 152 160
W WALKER RIVER 90%: 124 127 125 118 122
BLO LITTLE WALKER PROB: 135 140 136 129 139
OBS: 32 31 28 22 11
(AVG: 158) %AVG: 86% 89% 86% 82% 88%
DELTA: -3% -1% 4% -2%
BPRC1 10%: 59 65 65 60 66
EAST WALKER 90%: 47 48 47 45 47
BRIDGEPORT PROB: 53 54 53 51 54
OBS: 10 10 9 8 5
(AVG: 60) %AVG: 88% 90% 88% 85% 89%
DELTA: -2% -0% 3% -1%
05/05 05/04 05/02 04/28 04/21
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PALN2 10%: 385 395 387 387 396
HUMBOLDT RIVER 90%: 312 305 294 298 247
PALISADE PROB: 335 336 323 327 315
OBS: 104 101 95 79 54
(AVG: 213) %AVG: 158% 158% 152% 154% 148%
DELTA: -0% 6% 4% 10%
MHSN2 10%: 51 51 50 52 54
MARYS RIVER 90%: 39 39 39 41 38
ABV HOT SPRGS CK PROB: 42 42 42 44 43
OBS: 20 20 18 15 9
(AVG: 34) %AVG: 122% 123% 122% 129% 124%
DELTA: -1% -0% -7% -2%
HREN2 10%: 232 249 242 237 241
HUMBOLDT RIVER 90%: 181 185 179 181 151
ELKO PROB: 200 204 199 200 193
OBS: 55 53 50 41 28
(AVG: 125) %AVG: 161% 164% 160% 160% 155%
DELTA: -3% 1% 0% 6%
10%: (10% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE)
90%: (90% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE)
PROB: MOST PROBABLE (50% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE)
OBS: OBSERVED TO DATE (INCLUDED IN MAX/MIN/PROB)
%AVG: MOST PROBABLE (ESPRESSED AS PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
DELTA: CHANGE IN MOST PROBABLE (EXPRESSED AS PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
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