CNRFC - Ensemble Products

*** IMPORTANT *** Week of June 16 - Website Data Outage - Due to a major computer upgrade the week of June 16, nearly all data on the CNRFC web site will not be updated. We anticipate the down time to be approximately 4 days. The latest deterministic hydrologic forecasts for official forecast points will continue to be available at the National Water Prediction Service during this time.

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SAN LORENZO RIVER - BIG TREES (BTEC1)

Latitude: 37.04º N	Longitude: 122.07º W	Elevation: 227 Feet
Location: Santa Cruz County in California		Bulletin Group: Central Coast		River Group: Salinas/Pajaro

Issuance Time:

Jun 16, 2025 at 6:52 AM PDT

Action/Monitor: 14.0 Feet

Minor Flood: 16.5 Feet

Moderate Flood: 19.5 Feet

Major Flood: 21.76 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | BTEC1

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		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
		Model Traces

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
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Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
21.76 Feet	Major Flooding. At approximately 21.76 feet discharge in the San Lorenzo River is approximately 15,000 cfs. Major flooding in the Felton Grove neighborhood occurs at this stage, with roadways several feet deep and waters inundating the approaches to the Felton Covered Bridge. Felton Covered Bridge Park begins to experience widespread flooding at shallow depths. At 15,000 cfs, the City of Santa Cruz downstream will experience more serious flooding. The flood wave may take 2-3 hours to reach Santa Cruz.
19.5 Feet	Moderate Flooding. The St. Bernard Street area in Paradise Park is under several feet of water, with below grade floodplain infrastructure several feet deeper. St. Augustine Avenue neighborhood in Paradise Park begins to flood. Flooding imminent or already occurring in the Felton Grove neighborhood. Ground stories, first floors, and garages flooded. Felton Covered Bridge Park begins to flood.
16.5 Feet	Minor Flooding. Flooding is either imminent or already occurring in Paradise Park, with initial flooding in the St. Bernard Street area.
14.0 Feet	Monitor Stage. Stage can rise rapidly on the San Lorenzo River, up to several feet per hour. Approximately 2.5 feet below flood levels in Paradise Park and approximately 5.5 feet below flood stage in Felton Grove.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ512)

Today: Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s to mid 70s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s to upper 70s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

juneteenth through Friday Night: Mostly clear. Highs in the lower 60s to mid 70s. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Saturday through Sunday: Clear. Highs in the 60s to 70s. Lows near 50.

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