CNRFC - Ensemble Products

*** IMPORTANT *** Week of June 16 - Website Data Outage - Due to a major computer upgrade the week of June 16, nearly all data on the CNRFC web site will not be updated. We anticipate the down time to be approximately 4 days. The latest deterministic hydrologic forecasts for official forecast points will continue to be available at the National Water Prediction Service during this time.

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RUSSIAN RIVER - GUERNEVILLE (GUEC1)

Latitude: 38.50º N	Longitude: 123.00º W	Elevation: 65 Feet
Location: Sonoma County in California		Bulletin Group: Russian Napa		River Group: Russian Napa

Issuance Time:

Jun 16, 2025 at 6:41 AM PDT

Action/Monitor: 29.0 Feet

Minor Flood: 32.0 Feet

Moderate Flood: 35.0 Feet

Major Flood: 40.0 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | GUEC1

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		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
		Model Traces

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
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Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
49.5 Feet	Flood of record. 2/18/1986 (102,000cfs).
48.5 Feet	Near record flooding. In Guerneville the Veterans building and the Sheriffs substation begin to flood.
47.0 Feet	In Guerneville businesses on the north side of Main Street flood. Travel most areas impossible.
46.0 Feet	Disastrous flooding. In Guerneville much of downtown floods. The Guerneville post office begins to flood. In Rio Nido, River Road floods.
45.0 Feet	Disastrous flooding is forecast to occur along the lower Russian River. Much of downtown Guerneville will become inundated. Many roads will flood making travel nearly impossible throughout the reach.
44.0 Feet	In Guerneville HWY 116 west of town closed. Safeway floods. In Monte Rio and Guerneville Park the main business sections flood. Travel in most areas nearly impossible.
41.5 Feet	In Guerneville, River Road closed. In Monte Rio the main intersections flood. Monte Rio Elementary School begins to flood.
40.0 Feet	Major flooding is expected along the Russian River. In Guerneville travel on River Road becomes very difficult. In Northwood upper Redwood Drive floods. In Cazadero Austin Creek Road floods.
39.0 Feet	West of Duncan Mills HWY 116 is closed. In Hacienda River Road floods. In Rio Nido Canyon 7 Road at the miniture golf course floods. In Guerneville the Triple R Resort begins to flood.
38.0 Feet	In Duncan Mills Freezeout Road at Moscow Road floods. In Guerneville Park Cazadero Road at HWY 116 floods.
37.0 Feet	In Forestville Mirabel Road at River Road floods. In Guerneville River Road east of Guerneville floods. Mill Street and 5th Street flood. In Monte Rio River Blvd east of Monte Rio floods.
36.0 Feet	In Forestville Mirabel Park Resort and Mirabel trailer park flood. In Guerneville Fern Road at HWY 116 floods.
35.0 Feet	Moderate flooding is forecast along the lower Russian River. Numerous businesses and residences in the lowest sections of towns within the reach are expected to flood. In Guerneville Brookside Resort begins to flood. More extensive flooding occurs at Parkers Resort. In Northwood lower Redwood Drive floods.
34.0 Feet	In Guerneville flooding begins at Johnsons Resort, Parkers Resort, Creekside Resort and Riverside Park. In Northwood lower Redwood Drive begins to flood.
33.0 Feet	In Guerneville the intersection of HWY 116 and Drake Rd is closed. In Monte Rio Willow and Alder Streets flood. In Forestville Mirabel trailer park begins to flood.
32.5 Feet	In Guerneville the intersecton of HWY 116 and Neeley Rd is closed. Mays Canyon Rd by the old rodeo grounds is closed.
32.0 Feet	Flood stage. Minor flooding. Lower Mill Street in Guerneville and Old Bohemian Highway in Monte Rio are expected to flood.
29.0 Feet	Monitor stage.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ506)

Today: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming sunny. Breezy. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. West winds 10 to 20 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. West winds 20 to 30 mph decreasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs in the 70s to 80s. West winds 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s to upper 50s. West winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s to lower 90s. West winds 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

juneteenth through Saturday: Mostly clear. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Saturday Night: Clear. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s to mid 80s.

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