National Weather Service California Nevada River Forecast Center Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service



TUOLUMNE RIVER - MODESTO (MDSC1)
Latitude: 37.63º NLongitude: 120.99º WElevation: 60 Feet
Location: Stanislaus County in CaliforniaBulletin Group: San JoaquinRiver Group: San Joaquin
Issuance Time: Feb 15, 2026 at 8:41 AM PST
Action/Monitor: 50.5 FeetMinor Flood: 55.0 FeetModerate Flood: 66.0 FeetMajor Flood: 67.0 Feet
Please Note:Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.
Threshold Exceedance Plot                  Product Information        CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs):  Forecast Group  |  MDSC1

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What information is considered in this forecast?
Verification / Historical Plots
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Location Photographs

ESRI™ Locator Map
Flood Impacts
67.0 FeetExtensive flooding occurs. Flows in excess of 40,000 cfs could cause extensive damage to residential, industrial and commercial development in Modesto downstream of gage.
55.0 FeetThis is channel capacity through downtown Modesto.