CNRFC - Ensemble Products

Short-Range Products (hourly timestep)

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Location:

MOJAVE RIVER - VICTORVILLE (MVVC1)

Latitude: 34.57º N	Longitude: 117.32º W	Elevation: 2643 Feet
Location: San Bernardino County in California		Bulletin Group: Southern California		River Group: San Diego/Inland

Issuance Time:

Feb 15, 2026 at 10:02 AM PST

Action/Monitor: N/A

Minor Flood: 16.0 Feet

Moderate Flood: 18.0 Feet

Major Flood: 19.0 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | MVVC1

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		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
		Model Traces

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
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Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
19.0 Feet	Significant flows are occurring along the entire reach of the river, with flooding of adjacent farm lands north of victorville. The levees are threatened in the more densely populated areas of hesperia, victorville, and helendale, with overtopping possible in areas where vegetation or debris chokes the channel.
18.0 Feet	Significant flows have likely reached helendale and points to the north, with farm lands in the river bed and adjacent areas north of victorville inundated. Rock springs road in hesperia is in danger of washing out. Some erosion of the levees can be expected in victorville and helendale.
16.0 Feet	Significant flows reach farming areas north of victorville. Minor flooding of farmland adjacent to the river bed can be expected in oro grande. Some local erosion to the levees in hesperia and victorville is possible. Rock springs road has been overtopped and closed to traffic in hesperia.
13.0 Feet	AS WATER BEGINS TO FLOW IN THE NORMALLY DRY RIVERBED. LOW-WATER CROSSINGS WELL UPSTREAM OF THIS GAGE SUCH AS ROCK SPRINGS ROAD BELOW THE MOJAVE FORKS DAM MAY BE OVERTOPPED AND CLOSED. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH A POOL LEVEL OF 3005 FT AND ABOUT 2500 CFS. RELEASES FROM SILVERWOOD LAKE CAN ADD A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF INFLOW BEHIND THE DAM.