CNRFC - Ensemble Products

Short-Range Products (hourly timestep)

Long-Range Products (daily timestep)

Location:

SANTA MARGARITA - YSIDORA (YDRC1)

Latitude: 33.31º N	Longitude: 117.35º W	Elevation: 75 Feet
Location: San Diego County in California		Bulletin Group: Southern California		River Group: San Diego/Inland

Issuance Time:

Feb 13, 2026 at 1:14 PM PST

Action/Monitor: 10.85 Feet

Minor Flood: 12.5 Feet

Moderate Flood: 13.78 Feet

Major Flood: 16.29 Feet

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | YDRC1

Select Threshold to Use: Threshold Value: Threshold Label:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
		Model Traces

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
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Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
16.29 Feet	Major flood, 37,000 cfs. Widespread inundation of Camp Pendleton with evacuations likely. Flood of Record Jan 16, 1993.
13.78 Feet	Moderate flood stage, 17,000 cfs. Vandegrift Road is flooded for several miles downstream of the gage site. Stuart Mesa Road is flooded near the bridge.
12.5 Feet	Minor flood stage, 8,000 cfs. Vandegrift Road has begun to flood downstream of the gage. Stuart Mesa Road closures can be expected.
10.85 Feet	2,500 cfs. The river has reached monitor stage. Personnel begin regular patrols along the levee.