CNRFC Ensemble Plot for AROC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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PAJARO RIVER - CHITTENDEN (AROC1)

Latitude:
36.90º N

Longitude:
121.60º W

Elevation:
82 Feet

Location: Santa Cruz County in CA

River Group: Central Coast

Issuance Time:

Jan 08 2026 at 8:24 AM PST

Please Note:

Flow data on this product are unregulated / full natural flow.

Historical Flows

Water Year Seasonal (Apr-Jul)

Year		Annual Flow	3-Year Mean
1940	-946771200000	183.5
1941	-915148800000	446.3
1942	-883612800000	170.1	266.6
1943	-852076800000	159.9	258.8
1944	-820540800000	81.7	137.2
1945	-788918400000	90.0	110.6
1946	-757382400000	41.7	71.1
1947	-725846400000	21.5	51.1
1948	-694310400000	7.3	23.5
1949	-662688000000	24.1	17.6
1950	-631152000000	14.5	15.3
1951	-599616000000	153.9	64.2
1952	-568080000000	280.7	149.7
1953	-536457600000	53.6	162.7
1954	-504921600000	16.5	116.9
1955	-473385600000	9.9	26.6
1956	-441849600000	267.3	97.9
1957	-410227200000	12.0	96.4
1958	-378691200000	338.7	206.0
1959	-347155200000	59.1	136.6
1960	-315619200000	29.4	142.4
1961	-283996800000	3.0	30.5
1962	-252460800000	43.6	25.4
1963	-220924800000	115.5	54.1
1964	-189388800000	14.1	57.8
1965	-157766400000	67.0	65.5
1966	-126230400000	23.7	34.9
1967	-94694400000	189.6	93.4
1968	-63158400000	15.8	76.4
1969	-31536000000	335.5	180.3
1970	0000	132.1	161.2
1971	31536000000	31.9	166.5
1972	63072000000	6.4	56.8
1973	94694400000	190.7	76.3
1974	126230400000	120.6	105.9
1975	157766400000	67.2	126.2
1976	189302400000	4.2	64.0
1977	220924800000	0.8	24.1
1978	252460800000	179.3	61.4
1979	283996800000	36.9	72.3
1980	315532800000	180.7	132.3
1981	347155200000	29.8	82.5
1982	378691200000	288.1	166.2
1983	410227200000	655.0	324.3
1984	441763200000	128.3	357.2
1985	473385600000	25.7	269.7
1986	504921600000	247.8	133.9
1987	536457600000	19.0	97.5
1988	567993600000	6.2	91.0
1989	599616000000	5.2	10.1
1990	631152000000	2.3	4.6
1991	662688000000	20.0	9.1
1992	694224000000	20.6	14.3
1993	725846400000	205.0	81.8
1994	757382400000	14.5	80.0
1995	788918400000	273.9	164.4
1996	820454400000	204.7	164.3
1997	852076800000	379.4	286.0
1998	883612800000	620.8	401.6
1999	915148800000	128.1	376.1
2000	946684800000	153.7	300.9
2001	978307200000	40.9	107.6
2002	1009843200000	45.3	80.0
2003	1041379200000	65.8	50.6
2004	1072915200000	66.6	59.2
2005	1104537600000	145.2	92.5
2006	1136073600000	191.3	134.3
2007	1167609600000	26.3	120.9
2008	1199145600000	37.2	84.9
2009	1230768000000	21.7	28.4
2010	1262304000000	92.5	50.5
2011	1293840000000	185.2	99.8
2012	1325376000000	31.1	102.9
2013	1356998400000	38.8	85.0
2014	1388534400000	5.9	25.3
2015	1420070400000	10.1	18.3
2016	1451606400000	66.5	27.5
2017	1483228800000	439.3	172.0
2018	1514764800000	25.0	177.0
2019	1546300800000	162.0	208.8
2020	1577836800000	32.0	73.0
2021	1609459200000	13.2	69.1
2022	1640995200000	22.1	22.4
2023	1672531200000	433.0	156.1
2024	1704067200000	130.3	195.1
2025	1735689600000	42.1	201.8
2026	1767225600000	89.6	87.3

Year		Seasonal Flow	3-Year Mean
1940	-946771200000	26.2
1941	-915148800000	123.9
1942	-883612800000	39.9	63.3
1943	-852076800000	15.5	59.8
1944	-820540800000	6.8	20.7
1945	-788918400000	11.1	11.1
1946	-757382400000	5.5	7.8
1947	-725846400000	2.7	6.4
1948	-694310400000	3.8	4.0
1949	-662688000000	2.1	2.9
1950	-631152000000	1.5	2.5
1951	-599616000000	4.3	2.6
1952	-568080000000	15.1	6.9
1953	-536457600000	5.4	8.2
1954	-504921600000	4.6	8.3
1955	-473385600000	1.3	3.7
1956	-441849600000	3.7	3.2
1957	-410227200000	5.5	3.5
1958	-378691200000	194.5	67.9
1959	-347155200000	4.2	68.1
1960	-315619200000	2.8	67.2
1961	-283996800000	0.9	2.7
1962	-252460800000	1.0	1.6
1963	-220924800000	42.9	15.0
1964	-189388800000	2.5	15.5
1965	-157766400000	10.6	18.6
1966	-126230400000	2.4	5.2
1967	-94694400000	77.0	30.0
1968	-63158400000	3.7	27.7
1969	-31536000000	15.2	32.0
1970	0000	5.6	8.2
1971	31536000000	4.8	8.5
1972	63072000000	1.6	4.0
1973	94694400000	8.0	4.8
1974	126230400000	36.5	15.4
1975	157766400000	19.5	21.3
1976	189302400000	1.0	19.0
1977	220924800000	0.2	6.9
1978	252460800000	13.1	4.8
1979	283996800000	5.2	6.2
1980	315532800000	11.7	10.0
1981	347155200000	3.8	6.9
1982	378691200000	124.3	46.6
1983	410227200000	109.7	79.3
1984	441763200000	6.7	80.2
1985	473385600000	5.8	40.7
1986	504921600000	15.3	9.3
1987	536457600000	3.9	8.3
1988	567993600000	1.6	6.9
1989	599616000000	1.4	2.3
1990	631152000000	0.6	1.2
1991	662688000000	2.4	1.5
1992	694224000000	2.2	1.7
1993	725846400000	13.6	6.0
1994	757382400000	3.4	6.4
1995	788918400000	33.2	16.7
1996	820454400000	17.5	18.0
1997	852076800000	9.0	19.9
1998	883612800000	91.9	39.5
1999	915148800000	22.2	41.0
2000	946684800000	11.2	41.8
2001	978307200000	6.7	13.4
2002	1009843200000	6.4	8.1
2003	1041379200000	9.4	7.5
2004	1072915200000	6.1	7.3
2005	1104537600000	22.3	12.6
2006	1136073600000	87.6	38.7
2007	1167609600000	5.6	38.5
2008	1199145600000	4.5	32.6
2009	1230768000000	4.7	4.9
2010	1262304000000	22.4	10.6
2011	1293840000000	34.1	20.4
2012	1325376000000	11.9	22.8
2013	1356998400000	3.8	16.6
2014	1388534400000	2.2	6.0
2015	1420070400000	1.1	2.3
2016	1451606400000	6.4	3.2
2017	1483228800000	27.5	11.7
2018	1514764800000	8.2	14.1
2019	1546300800000	16.0	17.2
2020	1577836800000	11.8	12.0
2021	1609459200000	1.9	9.9
2022	1640995200000	2.4	5.4
2023	1672531200000	39.6	14.6
2024	1704067200000	32.0	24.7
2025	1735689600000	9.9	27.2
2026	1767225600000	5.6	15.9

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ529)

Today: Sunny. Areas of frost in the morning. Highs in the upper 50s. Light winds and becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Light winds.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 60s. Northeast winds around 5 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows around 40. Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening and becoming light.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 60s. Northeast winds around 5 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 40.

Monday through Tuesday: Clear. Highs in the upper 60s. Lows in the lower 40s.

Tuesday Night through Thursday: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.

Flood Impacts
33.73 Feet	Stage and flow of record. 02/03/1998. 25,100 cfs
29.0 Feet	Levees protecting Watsonville and Pajaro at risk of failure. Flooding throughout the Pajaro Valley.
27.1 Feet	Major Flood Stage. Levees protecting Pajaro at risk of overtopping at lowest points or severely strained if sandbagged. Seepage likely throughout the levee system.
25.1 Feet	Water levels within 2 feet of top of levee protecting Pajaro.
24.1 Feet	Minor Flood Stage. Water levels within 3 feet of top of levee protecting Pajaro. Increased potential for seepage through levee at vulnerable locations.
22.0 Feet	Monitor Stage. Water beginning to rise onto levee slopes.