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| PAJARO RIVER - CHITTENDEN (AROC1) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Latitude: 36.90º N | Longitude: 121.60º W | Elevation: 82 Feet | ||||||||||||||||
| Location: Santa Cruz County in CA | ||||||||||||||||||
| River Group: Central Coast | ||||||||||||||||||
| Issuance Time: | Jan 09 2026 at 8:47 AM PST |
| Please Note: | Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty. Flow data on this product are unregulated / full natural flow. |
| Monthly Probability Plot |
| Monthly Streamflow Volume (1000s of Acre-Feet) Data Updated: Jan 09 2026 at 8:57 AM PST | ||||||
| Prob | Jan* | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun |
| 10% | 34.6 | 99.8 | 104.8 | 22.9 | 4.9 | 1.1 |
| 25% | 21.1 | 46.1 | 41.5 | 9.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 50% | 9.6 | 15.6 | 15.1 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 75% | 9.5 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 90% | 9.5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Mean | 30.6 | 38.6 | 32.7 | 12.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 |
| %Mean | 31.4 | 40.4 | 46.2 | 29.0 | 20.5 | 14.3 |
| Prob | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
| 10% | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 35.5 |
| 25% | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 10.2 |
| 50% | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.9 |
| 75% | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| 90% | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| Mean | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 8.4 |
| %Mean | 28.6 | 40.0 | 50.0 | 50.0 | 42.9 | 22.6 |
| Note 1: %Mean is the "Median forecast monthly value (50%)" divided by the "monthly mean" (displayed as a %) | ||||||
| Note 2: For current month, graphic represents remaining forecast only, text represents observed + remaining forecast. | ||||||
| Location Photographs | ||
| ESRI™ Locator Map |
| Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ529) |
| Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s. Light winds. Saturday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the lower 60s. Northeast winds around 5 mph. Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening and becoming light. Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 60s. Northeast winds around 5 mph. Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening and becoming light. Monday: Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. Monday Night through Wednesday: Clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs around 70. Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Thursday: Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Thursday Night and Friday: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the lower 70s. |
| Flood Impacts | |
| 33.73 Feet | Stage and flow of record. 02/03/1998. 25,100 cfs |
| 29.0 Feet | Levees protecting Watsonville and Pajaro at risk of failure. Flooding throughout the Pajaro Valley. |
| 27.1 Feet | Major Flood Stage. Levees protecting Pajaro at risk of overtopping at lowest points or severely strained if sandbagged. Seepage likely throughout the levee system. |
| 25.1 Feet | Water levels within 2 feet of top of levee protecting Pajaro. |
| 24.1 Feet | Minor Flood Stage. Water levels within 3 feet of top of levee protecting Pajaro. Increased potential for seepage through levee at vulnerable locations. |
| 22.0 Feet | Monitor Stage. Water beginning to rise onto levee slopes. |