CNRFC Ensemble Plot for CEMC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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EAST FORK CARSON RIVER - MARKLEEVILLE (CEMC1)

Latitude:
38.71º N

Longitude:
119.76º W

Elevation:
5400 Feet

Location: Alpine County in CA

River Group: Eastern Sierra

Issuance Time:

Jul 07 2026 at 7:19 AM PDT

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Flow data on this product are unregulated / full natural flow.

4x5-Day Probability Plot

Tabular 4 x 5-Day Streamflow Volume Data
Observed Peak 1-Day Streamflow Volume: (April 1 at 12 UTC to Current Date at 12 UTC)			Observed 05/12/2025 2.9kaf

Forecast
Peak 1-Day Streamflow Volume:
(Current Date at 12 UTC to August 1 at 12 UTC)

10% (Max)
06/17/2025
0.7kaf

25%
06/17/2025
0.7kaf

50% (Prob)
06/17/2025
0.7kaf

75%
06/17/2025
0.7kaf

90% (Min)
06/17/2025
0.7kaf

Tabular 5-Day Volume Accumulations (1000s of Acre-Feet)
Probability	06/16 to 06/21	06/21 to 06/26	06/26 to 07/01	07/01 to 07/06
10%	3.3 kaf	2.7 kaf	2.2 kaf	1.9 kaf
25%	3.3 kaf	2.6 kaf	2.1 kaf	1.9 kaf
50% (Median)	3.3 kaf	2.6 kaf	2.1 kaf	1.8 kaf
75%	3.3 kaf	2.6 kaf	2.1 kaf	1.8 kaf
90%	3.3 kaf	2.6 kaf	2.1 kaf	1.8 kaf

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
12.0 Feet	Major impacts to transportation, communication, power and water systems. In excess of January 1997 event.
11.0 Feet	Major Flood Stage. Major impact to transportation including Highways 89 and 4. Communication, water and power systems may be impacted. Significant inundation of low lying rangelands.
10.0 Feet	Moderate Flood Stage. Moderate flooding impacting Carson River Resort campground, and potential for significant bank erosion causing road damage along Highways 89 and 4.
9.0 Feet	Minor Flood Stage. Minor flooding from Monitor Creek to Bryant Creek including impacts to river campgrounds and possible impacts to highway due to bank erosion. Similar to 1/8/17, 2/10/17 and 12/31/2005.
8.0 Feet	Monitor Stage. No flooding from from Monitor Creek to Bryant Creek, river near bankfull and may require precautionary measures to move resources away from the river. Additional impacts to recreational river users.