CNRFC Ensemble Plot for FTCN2

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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CARSON RIVER - FORT CHURCHILL (FTCN2)

Latitude:
39.29º N

Longitude:
119.31º W

Elevation:
4220 Feet

Location: Lyon County in NV

River Group: Eastern Sierra

Issuance Time:

Jan 10 2026 at 11:04 AM PST

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Flow data on this product are unregulated / full natural flow.

4x5-Day Probability Plot

Tabular 4 x 5-Day Streamflow Volume Data
Observed Peak 1-Day Streamflow Volume: (April 1 at 12 UTC to August 1 at 12 UTC)			Observed Available Apr 2 to Aug 1

Forecast
Peak 1-Day Streamflow Volume:
(April 1 at 12 UTC to August 1 at 12 UTC)

10% (Max)
06/17/2025
0.8kaf

25%
06/17/2025
0.8kaf

50% (Prob)
06/17/2025
0.8kaf

75%
06/17/2025
0.8kaf

90% (Min)
06/17/2025
0.8kaf

Tabular 5-Day Volume Accumulations (1000s of Acre-Feet)
Probability	06/16 to 06/21	06/21 to 06/26	06/26 to 07/01	07/01 to 07/06
10%	3.7 kaf	2.8 kaf	2.3 kaf	1.9 kaf
25%	3.7 kaf	2.8 kaf	2.2 kaf	1.8 kaf
50% (Median)	3.7 kaf	2.8 kaf	2.2 kaf	1.8 kaf
75%	3.7 kaf	2.8 kaf	2.2 kaf	1.8 kaf
90%	3.7 kaf	2.8 kaf	2.2 kaf	1.8 kaf

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (NVZ004)

Today: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs 42 to 47. Light winds.

Tonight: Clear. Lows 20 to 30. Light winds.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 43 to 48. Light winds.

Monday Night: Clear. Lows 20 to 30. Light winds.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 46 to 51. Light winds.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows 20 to 30.

Wednesday through Saturday: Clear. Highs 50 to 55. Lows 21 to 31.

Flood Impacts
9.5 Feet	Major Flood Stage, Major impact to roads, infastructure and parks.
8.5 Feet	Moderate Flood stage: Expanding impacts along lower Carson River impacting Parks, and rural roads.
8.0 Feet	Minor Flood stage
6.5 Feet	Monitor Stage: Some inundation of low lying areas including Rolling A Open Space Park, and Santa Maria Ranch Park. Some Distributed campsites along the river impacted.