CNRFC Ensemble Plot for FTCN2

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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CARSON RIVER - FORT CHURCHILL (FTCN2)

Latitude:
39.29º N

Longitude:
119.31º W

Elevation:
4220 Feet

Location: Lyon County in NV

River Group: Eastern Sierra

Issuance Time:

Aug 31 2026 at 8:47 AM PDT

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Flow data on this product are unregulated / full natural flow.

Monthly Probability Plot

Monthly Streamflow Volume (1000s of Acre-Feet) Data Updated: Aug 31 2026 at 8:55 AM PDT
Prob	Aug*	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
10%	0.0	0.1	7.5	16.6	30.8	37.8
25%	0.0	0.0	1.1	4.0	8.6	12.6
50%	0.0	0.0	0.5	2.5	4.0	6.3
75%	0.0	0.0	0.3	2.0	2.2	2.3
90%	0.0	0.0	0.2	1.7	1.8	0.9

Mean	2.8	1.7	5.3	9.7	14.8	23.4
%Mean	0.0	0.0	9.4	25.8	27.0	26.9
Prob	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
10%	50.5	60.0	70.0	124.9	146.3	72.2
25%	16.8	41.4	50.4	90.8	94.1	31.9
50%	6.5	13.0	27.0	51.3	37.3	3.0
75%	3.4	5.4	15.4	26.3	7.1	0.0
90%	0.8	2.6	7.7	17.5	0.9	0.0

Mean	24.0	31.5	37.9	69.0	53.9	16.4
%Mean	27.1	41.3	71.2	74.3	69.2	18.3
Note 1: %Mean is the "Median forecast monthly value (50%)" divided by the "monthly mean" (displayed as a %)
Note 2: For current month, graphic represents remaining forecast only, text represents observed + remaining forecast.

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
9.5 Feet	Major Flood Stage, Major impact to roads, infastructure and parks.
8.5 Feet	Moderate Flood stage: Expanding impacts along lower Carson River impacting Parks, and rural roads.
8.0 Feet	Minor Flood stage
6.5 Feet	Monitor Stage: Some inundation of low lying areas including Rolling A Open Space Park, and Santa Maria Ranch Park. Some Distributed campsites along the river impacted.