CNRFC Ensemble Plot for FTCN2

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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CARSON RIVER - FORT CHURCHILL (FTCN2)

Latitude:
39.29º N

Longitude:
119.31º W

Elevation:
4220 Feet

Location: Lyon County in NV

River Group: Eastern Sierra

Issuance Time:

Jul 07 2026 at 7:19 AM PDT

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Flow data on this product are unregulated / full natural flow.

Monthly Probability Plot

Monthly Streamflow Volume (1000s of Acre-Feet) Data Updated: Jul 07 2026 at 7:25 AM PDT
Prob	Jul*	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
10%	0.2	0.0	0.3	8.2	17.1	31.1
25%	0.2	0.0	0.0	1.9	4.7	9.1
50%	0.2	0.0	0.0	1.1	3.2	4.5
75%	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.9	2.7	2.7
90%	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.7	2.4	2.3

Mean	16.4	2.8	1.7	5.3	9.7	14.8
%Mean	1.2	0.0	0.0	20.8	33.0	30.4
Prob	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
10%	38.4	50.5	60.1	69.9	125.6	150.6
25%	13.0	17.1	41.5	50.5	91.5	98.5
50%	6.7	6.7	13.1	27.2	52.0	41.6
75%	2.7	3.7	5.6	15.5	27.0	10.6
90%	1.3	1.0	2.7	7.7	18.2	2.2

Mean	23.4	24.0	31.5	37.9	69.0	53.9
%Mean	28.6	27.9	41.6	71.8	75.4	77.2
Note 1: %Mean is the "Median forecast monthly value (50%)" divided by the "monthly mean" (displayed as a %)
Note 2: For current month, graphic represents remaining forecast only, text represents observed + remaining forecast.

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
9.5 Feet	Major Flood Stage, Major impact to roads, infastructure and parks.
8.5 Feet	Moderate Flood stage: Expanding impacts along lower Carson River impacting Parks, and rural roads.
8.0 Feet	Minor Flood stage
6.5 Feet	Monitor Stage: Some inundation of low lying areas including Rolling A Open Space Park, and Santa Maria Ranch Park. Some Distributed campsites along the river impacted.