CNRFC Ensemble Plot for ARCC1

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MAD RIVER - ARCATA (ARCC1)

Latitude:
40.91º N

Longitude:
124.06º W

Elevation:
13 Feet

Location: Humboldt County in CA

River Group: North Coast

Issuance Time:

May 01 2025 at 8:05 AM PDT

Action/
Monitor:
15.0 Ft

Minor
Flood:
22.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
24.0 Ft

Major
Flood:
28.0 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | ARCC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
33.0 Feet	Disastrous flooding of all areas near the river from Blue Lake to the mouth. The river is forecast to exceed record levels. All roads in the vicinity of the river are likely to be innundated and travel will be severly restricted. Residents should be prepared to take appropriate action to protect lives and property. This would include homes in Blue Lake, Tyee City and the Arcata Bottoms, as well as US Highway 101 between Arcata and Mckinleyville.
32.0 Feet	Disastrous flooding of all areas near the river from Blue Lake to the mouth. The river is forecast to approach record levels. All roads in the vicinity of the river are likely to be innundated and travel will be severly restricted. Residents should be prepared to take appropriate action to protect lives and property. This would include homes in Blue Lake, Tyee City and the Arcata Bottoms, as well as US Highway 101 between Arcata and Mckinleyville.
30.0 Feet	Extensive, severe flooding of all low lying areas near the river from Blue Lake downstream to the mouth. Residents in these areas should be prepared to take appropriate action to protect lives and property. Critical locations include residential areas of Blue Lake, Tyee City, and the Arcata Bottoms, as well as US Highway 101 near Janes Road and areas near Giuntoli Lane.
28.0 Feet	Severe flooding of all low lying areas near the river from Blue Lake downstream to the mouth. Residents in these areas should be prepared to take appropriate action to protect lives and property. This includes residential areas of Tyee City and the Arcata Bottoms, US Highway 101 near Janes Road, areas near Giuntoli Lane, and Mad River Beach Road.
26.0 Feet	Severe flooding along Mad River Beach Road and extensive flooding of farmlands and other roads in the area. Flooding of residential areas around Tyee City is likely. Any low lying areas near the river could be flooded. Residents in these areas should be prepared to take appropriate action to protect lives and property.
24.0 Feet	Extensive flooding along Mad River Beach Road and adjacent farmlands. Some homes along the river could be threatened. Flooding of roads to Tyee City. High tides and strong onshore winds will enhance flood impacts.
23.0 Feet	Significant flooding of portions of Mad River Beach Road and adjacent farmlands is likely. May cause water to flow across roads to Tyee City. High tides and strong, onshore winds will aggravate flood impacts.
22.0 Feet	Significant flooding of portions of Mad River Beach Road. Water may flow across roads to Tyee City. Flood impacts will be aggravated by high tides and strong, onshore winds.
21.0 Feet	Flooding of Mad River Beach Road. Water may be flowing over roads to Tyee City. Flooding will be enhanced if the time of the crest is coincident with high tides and strong onshore winds.
18.0 Feet	Minor flooding of Mad River Beach Road near Tyee City.
15.0 Feet	Minor flooding begins on the Mad River Beach Road near Tyee City.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ103)

Today: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs 57 to 69. West wind around 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 40 to 50. Northwest wind around 5 mph.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs 57 to 67. Northwest wind around 10 mph.

Friday Night: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 41 to 51. Northwest wind around 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Highs 48 to 58. Northwest wind 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows 38 to 48.

Sunday and Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Highs 53 to 63. Lows 38 to 48.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 60 to 70.

Monday Night and Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Lows 42 to 52. Highs 60 to 73.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 43 to 53. Highs 59 to 73.

Flood Impacts
33.0 Feet	Disastrous flooding of all areas near the river from Blue Lake to the mouth. The river is forecast to exceed record levels. All roads in the vicinity of the river are likely to be innundated and travel will be severly restricted. Residents should be prepared to take appropriate action to protect lives and property. This would include homes in Blue Lake, Tyee City and the Arcata Bottoms, as well as US Highway 101 between Arcata and Mckinleyville.
32.0 Feet	Disastrous flooding of all areas near the river from Blue Lake to the mouth. The river is forecast to approach record levels. All roads in the vicinity of the river are likely to be innundated and travel will be severly restricted. Residents should be prepared to take appropriate action to protect lives and property. This would include homes in Blue Lake, Tyee City and the Arcata Bottoms, as well as US Highway 101 between Arcata and Mckinleyville.
30.0 Feet	Extensive, severe flooding of all low lying areas near the river from Blue Lake downstream to the mouth. Residents in these areas should be prepared to take appropriate action to protect lives and property. Critical locations include residential areas of Blue Lake, Tyee City, and the Arcata Bottoms, as well as US Highway 101 near Janes Road and areas near Giuntoli Lane.
28.0 Feet	Severe flooding of all low lying areas near the river from Blue Lake downstream to the mouth. Residents in these areas should be prepared to take appropriate action to protect lives and property. This includes residential areas of Tyee City and the Arcata Bottoms, US Highway 101 near Janes Road, areas near Giuntoli Lane, and Mad River Beach Road.
26.0 Feet	Severe flooding along Mad River Beach Road and extensive flooding of farmlands and other roads in the area. Flooding of residential areas around Tyee City is likely. Any low lying areas near the river could be flooded. Residents in these areas should be prepared to take appropriate action to protect lives and property.
24.0 Feet	Extensive flooding along Mad River Beach Road and adjacent farmlands. Some homes along the river could be threatened. Flooding of roads to Tyee City. High tides and strong onshore winds will enhance flood impacts.
23.0 Feet	Significant flooding of portions of Mad River Beach Road and adjacent farmlands is likely. May cause water to flow across roads to Tyee City. High tides and strong, onshore winds will aggravate flood impacts.
22.0 Feet	Significant flooding of portions of Mad River Beach Road. Water may flow across roads to Tyee City. Flood impacts will be aggravated by high tides and strong, onshore winds.
21.0 Feet	Flooding of Mad River Beach Road. Water may be flowing over roads to Tyee City. Flooding will be enhanced if the time of the crest is coincident with high tides and strong onshore winds.
18.0 Feet	Minor flooding of Mad River Beach Road near Tyee City.
15.0 Feet	Minor flooding begins on the Mad River Beach Road near Tyee City.