CNRFC Ensemble Plot for BNCC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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BURNS CREEK - BURNS CREEK RESERVOIR (BNCC1)

Latitude:
37.38º N

Longitude:
120.28º W

Elevation:
319 Feet

Location: Merced County in CA

River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

Jun 29 2025 at 7:17 AM PDT

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Flow data on this product are unregulated / full natural flow.

Monthly Probability Plot

Monthly Streamflow Volume (1000s of Acre-Feet) Data Updated: Jun 29 2025 at 7:43 AM PDT
Prob	Jun*	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
10%	+	+	+	+	+	+
25%	+	+	+	+	+	+
50%	+	+	+	+	+	+
75%	+	+	+	+	+	+
90%	+	+	+	+	+	+

Mean	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
%Mean	+	+	+	+	+	+
Prob	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
10%	+	+	+	+	+	+
25%	+	+	+	+	+	+
50%	+	+	+	+	+	+
75%	+	+	+	+	+	+
90%	+	+	+	+	+	+

Mean	1.6	5.1	4.4	3.8	1.0	0.2
%Mean	+	+	+	+	+	+
Note 1: %Mean is the "Median forecast monthly value (50%)" divided by the "monthly mean" (displayed as a %)
Note 2: For current month, graphic represents remaining forecast only, text represents observed + remaining forecast.

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ303)

Today: Sunny. Highs around 100. West winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Clear. Lows in the mid 60s. Northwest winds up to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 90s. West winds up to 10 mph.

Monday Night: Clear. Lows in the mid 60s. Northwest winds up to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 90s. West winds up to 10 mph.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: Clear. Lows in the mid 60s. Highs in the upper 90s.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 90s.

Thursday Night through Saturday: Clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the lower 90s.