CNRFC Ensemble Plot for BTCC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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SACRAMENTO RIVER - BUTTE CITY (BTCC1)

Latitude:
39.46º N

Longitude:
121.99º W

Elevation:
99 Feet

Location: Glenn County in CA

River Group: Upper Sacramento

Issuance Time:

Jan 02 2026 at 2:12 PM PST

Action/
Monitor:
88.5 Ft

Minor
Flood:
97.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
99.5 Ft

Major
Flood:
100.5 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | BTCC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
100.5 Feet	Stages above 100.5 feet result in major flooding. Top of levee.
97.0 Feet	Water begins to flow into the orchards on the west bank of the river. Water is still contained inside the levees.
96.5 Feet	Water begins to flow into the orchards on the west bank of the river. Water is still contained inside the levees.
89.9 Feet	Overbank flow of the east bank begins upstream of the gage. Water flows into Butte Basin.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ016)

Today: Rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Breezy. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Highs around 56. South winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to around 40 mph.

Tonight: Rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Breezy. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall. Lows 46 to 52. South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 40 mph.

Sunday: Rain. Highs around 52. South winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Sunday Night: Rain. Lows 43 to 49. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Rain. Highs around 49. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday Night: Cloudy with a chance of rain. Lows 42 to 47.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain. Highs around 51.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Lows 39 to 44. Highs around 50.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Lows around 35.

Thursday through Friday: Mostly clear. Highs around 49. Lows around 35.

Flood Impacts
100.5 Feet	Stages above 100.5 feet result in major flooding. Top of levee.
97.0 Feet	Water begins to flow into the orchards on the west bank of the river. Water is still contained inside the levees.
96.5 Feet	Water begins to flow into the orchards on the west bank of the river. Water is still contained inside the levees.
89.9 Feet	Overbank flow of the east bank begins upstream of the gage. Water flows into Butte Basin.