CNRFC Ensemble Plot for CEMC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

Prev. Point

Next Point

Back to Points

Back to Home

EAST FORK CARSON RIVER - MARKLEEVILLE (CEMC1)

Latitude:
38.71º N

Longitude:
119.76º W

Elevation:
5400 Feet

Location: Alpine County in CA

River Group: Eastern Sierra

Issuance Time:

Jan 11 2026 at 8:24 AM PST

Action/
Monitor:
8.0 Ft

Minor
Flood:
9.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
10.0 Ft

Major
Flood:
11.0 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | CEMC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
12.0 Feet	Major impacts to transportation, communication, power and water systems. In excess of January 1997 event.
11.0 Feet	Major Flood Stage. Major impact to transportation including Highways 89 and 4. Communication, water and power systems may be impacted. Significant inundation of low lying rangelands.
10.0 Feet	Moderate Flood Stage. Moderate flooding impacting Carson River Resort campground, and potential for significant bank erosion causing road damage along Highways 89 and 4.
9.0 Feet	Minor Flood Stage. Minor flooding from Monitor Creek to Bryant Creek including impacts to river campgrounds and possible impacts to highway due to bank erosion. Similar to 1/8/17, 2/10/17 and 12/31/2005.
8.0 Feet	Monitor Stage. No flooding from from Monitor Creek to Bryant Creek, river near bankfull and may require precautionary measures to move resources away from the river. Additional impacts to recreational river users.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ072)

Today: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs 40 to 45. Light winds.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Lows 13 to 23. Light winds.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 41 to 46. Light winds.

Monday Night: Clear. Lows 13 to 23. Light winds.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 45 to 55. Light winds.

Tuesday Night: Clear. Lows 18 to 28.

Wednesday through Saturday: Clear. Highs 45 to 55. Lows 18 to 28.

Flood Impacts
12.0 Feet	Major impacts to transportation, communication, power and water systems. In excess of January 1997 event.
11.0 Feet	Major Flood Stage. Major impact to transportation including Highways 89 and 4. Communication, water and power systems may be impacted. Significant inundation of low lying rangelands.
10.0 Feet	Moderate Flood Stage. Moderate flooding impacting Carson River Resort campground, and potential for significant bank erosion causing road damage along Highways 89 and 4.
9.0 Feet	Minor Flood Stage. Minor flooding from Monitor Creek to Bryant Creek including impacts to river campgrounds and possible impacts to highway due to bank erosion. Similar to 1/8/17, 2/10/17 and 12/31/2005.
8.0 Feet	Monitor Stage. No flooding from from Monitor Creek to Bryant Creek, river near bankfull and may require precautionary measures to move resources away from the river. Additional impacts to recreational river users.