CNRFC Ensemble Plot for EXQC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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MERCED RIVER - EXCHEQUER RESERVOIR (EXQC1)

Latitude:
37.58º N

Longitude:
120.27º W

Elevation:
442 Feet

Location: Mariposa County in CA

River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

Jun 25 2025 at 7:54 AM PDT

Action/
Monitor:
N/A

Minor
Flood:
N/A

Moderate
Flood:
N/A

Major
Flood:
N/A

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | EXQC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ317)

Today: Sunny. Highs in the mid 90s. West winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Clear. Lows in the mid 60s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north after midnight.

Friday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 90s. South winds up to 5 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon.

Friday Night: Clear. Lows in the upper 60s. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast after midnight.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 90s. East winds up to 5 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon.

Saturday Night through Wednesday: Clear. Lows in the upper 60s. Highs in the upper 90s.