CNRFC Ensemble Plot for FTCN2

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

Prev. Point

Next Point

Back to Points

Back to Home

CARSON RIVER - FORT CHURCHILL (FTCN2)

Latitude:
39.29º N

Longitude:
119.31º W

Elevation:
4220 Feet

Location: Lyon County in NV

River Group: Eastern Sierra

Issuance Time:

Jan 10 2026 at 11:10 AM PST

Action/
Monitor:
6.5 Ft

Minor
Flood:
8.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
8.5 Ft

Major
Flood:
9.5 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | FTCN2

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (NVZ004)

Today: Partly cloudy. Highs 37 to 42. Light winds.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows 19 to 29. Light winds.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs 41 to 46. Light winds.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming clear. Lows 19 to 29. Light winds.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 43 to 48. Light winds.

Monday Night: Clear. Lows 19 to 29.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 46 to 51.

Tuesday Night: Clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows 21 to 31.

Wednesday through Friday: Clear. Highs 50 to 55. Lows 22 to 32.

Flood Impacts
9.5 Feet	Major Flood Stage, Major impact to roads, infastructure and parks.
8.5 Feet	Moderate Flood stage: Expanding impacts along lower Carson River impacting Parks, and rural roads.
8.0 Feet	Minor Flood stage
6.5 Feet	Monitor Stage: Some inundation of low lying areas including Rolling A Open Space Park, and Santa Maria Ranch Park. Some Distributed campsites along the river impacted.