CNRFC Ensemble Plot for FTDC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
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SMITH RIVER - DOCTOR FINE BRIDGE (FTDC1)

Latitude:
41.88º N

Longitude:
124.14º W

Elevation:
0 Feet

Location: Del Norte County in CA

River Group: North Coast

Issuance Time:

Apr 30 2025 at 8:47 AM PDT

Action/
Monitor:
27.0 Ft

Minor
Flood:
33.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
36.0 Ft

Major
Flood:
39.0 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | FTDC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
40.0 Feet	Many roads and structures in the vicinity of the river are likely to be threatened. Significant flooding expected along US Highways 101 and 199, South Bank Rd, and in low lying areas between Lake Earl and the river, including areas along Lower Lake Drive.
38.0 Feet	Expect flooding of portions of Highway 197 and South Bank Rd in the vicinity of US Highway 101. Flooding is also expected in low lying areas between Lake Earl and the river, including areas along Lower Lake Drive. Some access roads and homes in this area may be flooded.
36.0 Feet	Flooding of South Bank Rd in the vicinity of US Highway 101 is likely. Water can flow across low-lying areas into Lake Earl about 4 miles south of the river, including areas along Lower Lake Drive. Some low-lying residential access roads may flood.
33.0 Feet	Flooding is likely near the gravel plant and on South Bank Road in the vicinity of US Highway 101. Water may flow across low-lying areas into Lake Earl about 4 miles south of the river, including areas along lower Lake Drive.
31.0 Feet	Minor flooding may occur around the gravel plant near US Highway 101 and South Bank Road approximately 1 mile upstream from Doctor Fine Bridge.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ101)

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 41 to 51. Northwest wind around 10 mph shifting to the northeast overnight.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 57 to 69. East wind around 5 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Patchy fog in the evening, then areas of fog overnight. Lows 40 to 50. West wind around 5 mph in the evening becoming light.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Slight chance of rain. Highs 54 to 64. Southwest wind around 5 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely. Lows 40 to 50. Northwest wind around 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 52 to 62. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows 37 to 47.

Sunday and Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Highs 58 to 68. Lows 37 to 47.

Monday through Tuesday: Mostly clear. Highs 62 to 75. Lows 40 to 50.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Lows 43 to 53. Highs 59 to 74.

Flood Impacts
40.0 Feet	Many roads and structures in the vicinity of the river are likely to be threatened. Significant flooding expected along US Highways 101 and 199, South Bank Rd, and in low lying areas between Lake Earl and the river, including areas along Lower Lake Drive.
38.0 Feet	Expect flooding of portions of Highway 197 and South Bank Rd in the vicinity of US Highway 101. Flooding is also expected in low lying areas between Lake Earl and the river, including areas along Lower Lake Drive. Some access roads and homes in this area may be flooded.
36.0 Feet	Flooding of South Bank Rd in the vicinity of US Highway 101 is likely. Water can flow across low-lying areas into Lake Earl about 4 miles south of the river, including areas along Lower Lake Drive. Some low-lying residential access roads may flood.
33.0 Feet	Flooding is likely near the gravel plant and on South Bank Road in the vicinity of US Highway 101. Water may flow across low-lying areas into Lake Earl about 4 miles south of the river, including areas along lower Lake Drive.
31.0 Feet	Minor flooding may occur around the gravel plant near US Highway 101 and South Bank Road approximately 1 mile upstream from Doctor Fine Bridge.