CNRFC Ensemble Plot for FTSC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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EEL RIVER - FORT SEWARD (FTSC1)

Latitude:
40.22º N

Longitude:
123.63º W

Elevation:
217 Feet

Location: Humboldt County in CA

River Group: North Coast

Issuance Time:

Jan 11 2026 at 8:49 AM PST

Action/
Monitor:
55.0 Ft

Minor
Flood:
70.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
80.0 Ft

Major
Flood:
90.0 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | FTSC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
83.0 Feet	Considerable flooding of low lying areas north of the railroad tracks in Alderpoint and Fort Seward, and around the Dobbyns creek confluence. This forecast exceeds record river levels.
80.0 Feet	Flooding is probable in low lying areas north of the railroad tracks in alderpoint and fort seward, and around the dobbyns creek confluence.
78.0 Feet	Minor flooding is possible in low lying areas north of the railroad tracks in Alderpoint and Fort Seward, and around the Dobbyns Creek confluence.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ106)

Tonight: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. Lows 35 to 45.

Monday: Sunny. Patchy valley fog in the morning. Highs 56 to 66.

Monday Night: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. Lows 38 to 48.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 58 to 71.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. Lows 37 to 47.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs 59 to 70.

Wednesday Night and Thursday: Mostly clear. Patchy valley fog. Lows 39 to 49. Highs 59 to 74.

Thursday Night through Friday Night: Clear. Patchy valley fog. Lows 40 to 50. Highs 62 to 74.

Saturday: Sunny. Patchy valley fog. Highs 61 to 71.

Saturday Night and Sunday: Partly cloudy. Patchy valley fog. Lows 40 to 50. Highs 59 to 71.

Flood Impacts
83.0 Feet	Considerable flooding of low lying areas north of the railroad tracks in Alderpoint and Fort Seward, and around the Dobbyns creek confluence. This forecast exceeds record river levels.
80.0 Feet	Flooding is probable in low lying areas north of the railroad tracks in alderpoint and fort seward, and around the dobbyns creek confluence.
78.0 Feet	Minor flooding is possible in low lying areas north of the railroad tracks in Alderpoint and Fort Seward, and around the Dobbyns Creek confluence.