CNRFC Ensemble Plot for GARC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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SISQUOC RIVER - GAREY (GARC1)

Latitude:
34.89º N

Longitude:
120.31º W

Elevation:
355 Feet

Location: Santa Barbara County in CA

River Group: Southern California

Issuance Time:

Jan 06 2026 at 2:17 PM PST

Action/
Monitor:
11.0 Ft

Minor
Flood:
16.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
20.0 Ft

Major
Flood:
30.0 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | GARC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
16.0 Feet	Flow can overtop levee at any point and cause flooding.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ347)

Today: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph shifting to the north 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Clear. Lows in the mid to upper 30s. North winds 15 to 25 mph.

Friday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Friday Night: Clear. Lows around 40.

Saturday: Sunny in the morning then partly cloudy. Highs in the lower to mid 60s.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy early then low clouds and fog. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Sunday: Low clouds and fog in the morning then partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 60s to around 70.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower to mid 40s.

Monday: Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s to around 70.

Monday Night: Clear. Lows in the mid 40s.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Flood Impacts
16.0 Feet	Flow can overtop levee at any point and cause flooding.