CNRFC Ensemble Plot for HPIC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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MERCED RIVER - HAPPY ISLES (HPIC1)

Latitude:
37.73º N

Longitude:
119.56º W

Elevation:
4017 Feet

Location: Mariposa County in CA

River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

Jun 24 2025 at 9:40 AM PDT

Action/
Monitor:
N/A

Minor
Flood:
7.5 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
10.0 Ft

Major
Flood:
13.27 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | HPIC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
13.27 Feet	Flood of Record: 1/2/97. $178 million in damage to Yosemite Valley.
10.0 Feet	Northside Drive at Wosky Pond, Southside Drive at Chapel Meadow, El Capitan crossover, and Sentinel crossover are impassable to vehicles.
8.2 Feet	Swinging Bridge overtops. Water on road at Northside Drive, Southsie Drive, El Capitan crossover, and Sentinel crossover.
7.5 Feet	Flood Stage. Housekeeping camp and Yosemite Valley backpacker campground begin to flood.
7.0 Feet	North Pines and Lower Pines campgrounds begin flooding.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ324)

Today: Sunny. Highs 70 to 82. Southeast winds up to 5 mph shifting to the southwest 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 53 to 61. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east after midnight.

Wednesday: Warmer, sunny. Highs 76 to 88. East winds up to 5 mph shifting to the west 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night: Clear. Lows 55 to 63. West winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the east after midnight.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 77 to 89. Southeast winds up to 5 mph shifting to the southwest 5 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 56 to 64.

Friday through Monday: Clear. Highs 78 to 93. Lows 58 to 68.

Flood Impacts
13.27 Feet	Flood of Record: 1/2/97. $178 million in damage to Yosemite Valley.
10.0 Feet	Northside Drive at Wosky Pond, Southside Drive at Chapel Meadow, El Capitan crossover, and Sentinel crossover are impassable to vehicles.
8.2 Feet	Swinging Bridge overtops. Water on road at Northside Drive, Southsie Drive, El Capitan crossover, and Sentinel crossover.
7.5 Feet	Flood Stage. Housekeeping camp and Yosemite Valley backpacker campground begin to flood.
7.0 Feet	North Pines and Lower Pines campgrounds begin flooding.