CNRFC Ensemble Plot for HPIC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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MERCED RIVER - HAPPY ISLES (HPIC1)

Latitude:
37.73º N

Longitude:
119.56º W

Elevation:
4017 Feet

Location: Mariposa County in CA

River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

May 08 2025 at 8:34 AM PDT

Action/
Monitor:
N/A

Minor
Flood:
7.5 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
10.0 Ft

Major
Flood:
13.27 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | HPIC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
13.27 Feet	Flood of Record: 1/2/97. $178 million in damage to Yosemite Valley.
10.0 Feet	Northside Drive at Wosky Pond, Southside Drive at Chapel Meadow, El Capitan crossover, and Sentinel crossover are impassable to vehicles.
8.2 Feet	Swinging Bridge overtops. Water on road at Northside Drive, Southsie Drive, El Capitan crossover, and Sentinel crossover.
7.5 Feet	Flood Stage. Housekeeping camp and Yosemite Valley backpacker campground begin to flood.
7.0 Feet	North Pines and Lower Pines campgrounds begin flooding.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ324)

Today: Warmer, sunny. Highs 72 to 84. Southeast winds up to 5 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 54 to 62. Northeast winds up to 5 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 74 to 84. East winds up to 5 mph increasing to southwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 52 to 58. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to around 25 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 64 to 74. South winds up to 10 mph increasing to southwest 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Sunday Night and Monday: Cooler. Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs 52 to 64.

Monday Night: Colder. Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain in the evening, then chance of rain and snow after midnight. Lows 34 to 40. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 44 to 54. Chance of showers 50 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Lows 33 to 39.

Wednesday: Not as cool. Sunny. Highs 54 to 64.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows 39 to 45.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 59 to 69.

Flood Impacts
13.27 Feet	Flood of Record: 1/2/97. $178 million in damage to Yosemite Valley.
10.0 Feet	Northside Drive at Wosky Pond, Southside Drive at Chapel Meadow, El Capitan crossover, and Sentinel crossover are impassable to vehicles.
8.2 Feet	Swinging Bridge overtops. Water on road at Northside Drive, Southsie Drive, El Capitan crossover, and Sentinel crossover.
7.5 Feet	Flood Stage. Housekeeping camp and Yosemite Valley backpacker campground begin to flood.
7.0 Feet	North Pines and Lower Pines campgrounds begin flooding.