CNRFC Ensemble Plot for KCVC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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KELSEY CREEK - KELSEYVILLE (KCVC1)

Latitude:
38.93º N

Longitude:
122.84º W

Elevation:
1495 Feet

Location: Lake County in CA

River Group: Lower Sacramento

Issuance Time:

Jan 11 2026 at 8:33 AM PST

Action/
Monitor:
11.0 Ft

Minor
Flood:
N/A

Moderate
Flood:
N/A

Major
Flood:
N/A

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | KCVC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ115)

Tonight: Partly cloudy until late Tonight then becoming clear. Lows 36 to 46.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 58 to 68.

Monday Night: Clear. Lows 37 to 47.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 61 to 71.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday: Clear. Lows 39 to 49. Highs 61 to 73.

Wednesday Night through Friday Night: Clear. Lows 41 to 51. Highs 62 to 74.

Saturday through Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs 61 to 72. Lows 41 to 51.

Flood Impacts
13.8 Feet	Bank overtopping occurs 2.5 miles upstream of the mouth of Kelsey Creek.
13.1 Feet	Overtopping occurs just upstream of the gage and canyon