CNRFC Ensemble Plot for MCNC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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COSUMNES RIVER - MCCONNELL (MCNC1)

Latitude:
38.36º N

Longitude:
121.34º W

Elevation:
5 Feet

Location: Sacramento County in CA

River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

Apr 30 2025 at 8:44 AM PDT

Action/
Monitor:
38.5 Ft

Minor
Flood:
44.5 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
53.4 Ft

Major
Flood:
53.5 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | MCNC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
46.5 Feet	At approximately 44,000 cfs, water exits the river upstream and downstream of Highway 99. Dillard Road is flooded from Highway 99 to Riley Road. Twin Cities Road is flooded from Hardesty Lane to Christensen Road.
44.5 Feet	Flood stage.
41.5 Feet	The Cosumnes River overflow channel begins to flow.
38.5 Feet	Monitor Stage.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ017)

Tonight: Clear. Lows 51 to 57. West winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 79 to 88. West winds up to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Clear. Lows 48 to 54. Southwest winds up to 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph.

Friday: Sunny. Highs 74 to 82. South winds up to 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows around 54. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Highs 65 to 71.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Lows 48 to 54.

Sunday and Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Highs 69 to 76. Lows 48 to 56.

Monday and Monday Night: Clear. Highs 76 to 83. Lows 50 to 56.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 75 to 83.

Tuesday Night: Clear. Lows around 52.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 76 to 83.

Flood Impacts
46.5 Feet	At approximately 44,000 cfs, water exits the river upstream and downstream of Highway 99. Dillard Road is flooded from Highway 99 to Riley Road. Twin Cities Road is flooded from Hardesty Lane to Christensen Road.
44.5 Feet	Flood stage.
41.5 Feet	The Cosumnes River overflow channel begins to flow.
38.5 Feet	Monitor Stage.