CNRFC Ensemble Plot for MCNC1

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COSUMNES RIVER - MCCONNELL (MCNC1)

Latitude:
38.36º N

Longitude:
121.34º W

Elevation:
5 Feet

Location: Sacramento County in CA

River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

Jun 16 2025 at 6:21 AM PDT

Action/
Monitor:
38.5 Ft

Minor
Flood:
44.5 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
53.4 Ft

Major
Flood:
53.5 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | MCNC1

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
		Model Traces

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
46.5 Feet	At approximately 44,000 cfs, water exits the river upstream and downstream of Highway 99. Dillard Road is flooded from Highway 99 to Riley Road. Twin Cities Road is flooded from Hardesty Lane to Christensen Road.
44.5 Feet	Flood stage.
41.5 Feet	The Cosumnes River overflow channel begins to flow.
38.5 Feet	Monitor Stage.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ017)

Today: Sunny. Highs 83 to 93. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Tonight: Clear, cooler. Lows 49 to 55. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Friday: Sunny. Highs 76 to 84. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon.

Friday Night: Clear. Lows 49 to 55. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 35 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 77 to 83. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Saturday Night: Clear. Lows 54 to 62.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 83 to 89.

Sunday Night and Monday: Clear. Lows 52 to 60. Highs 83 to 93.

Monday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 53 to 60.

Tuesday through Wednesday: Clear. Highs 86 to 96. Lows 53 to 60.

Flood Impacts
46.5 Feet	At approximately 44,000 cfs, water exits the river upstream and downstream of Highway 99. Dillard Road is flooded from Highway 99 to Riley Road. Twin Cities Road is flooded from Hardesty Lane to Christensen Road.
44.5 Feet	Flood stage.
41.5 Feet	The Cosumnes River overflow channel begins to flow.
38.5 Feet	Monitor Stage.