CNRFC Ensemble Plot for MHBC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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COSUMNES RIVER - MICHIGAN BAR (MHBC1)

Latitude:
38.50º N

Longitude:
121.04º W

Elevation:
168 Feet

Location: Sacramento County in CA

River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

Apr 29 2025 at 8:46 AM PDT

Action/
Monitor:
7.0 Ft

Minor
Flood:
12.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
16.0 Ft

Major
Flood:
18.0 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | MHBC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
13.2 Feet	Water floods houses in Wilton. The south bank levee near Wilton is overtopped.
12.0 Feet	Water flows on to the road near Wilton.
8.0 Feet	Low lying lands along the river begin to flood.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ017)

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Lows 51 to 59. South winds up to 10 mph.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Highs 79 to 87. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Clear. Lows 51 to 57. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south after midnight.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 79 to 87. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Clear. Lows 49 to 55. South winds around 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph.

Friday: Sunny. Highs 75 to 83.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 53.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Cooler. Highs 62 to 69.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Lows 46 to 52.

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs 66 to 73.

Sunday Night through Monday Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 51. Highs 67 to 77.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 74 to 81.

Flood Impacts
13.2 Feet	Water floods houses in Wilton. The south bank levee near Wilton is overtopped.
12.0 Feet	Water flows on to the road near Wilton.
8.0 Feet	Low lying lands along the river begin to flood.