CNRFC Ensemble Plot for MHBC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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COSUMNES RIVER - MICHIGAN BAR (MHBC1)

Latitude:
38.50º N

Longitude:
121.04º W

Elevation:
168 Feet

Location: Sacramento County in CA

River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

Jan 04 2026 at 8:46 AM PST

Action/
Monitor:
7.0 Ft

Minor
Flood:
12.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
16.0 Ft

Major
Flood:
18.0 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | MHBC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
13.2 Feet	Water floods houses in Wilton. The south bank levee near Wilton is overtopped.
12.0 Feet	Water flows on to the road near Wilton.
8.0 Feet	Low lying lands along the river begin to flood.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ017)

Today: Rain. Highs 50 to 57. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph.

Tonight: Cloudy with a chance of rain in the evening, then partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows around 45. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Patchy fog in the morning. Partly cloudy. Highs 53 to 58. Light winds.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog through the night. Lows around 45. Light winds.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain. Patchy fog through the day. Highs around 53. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain. Patchy fog. Lows around 40.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 50.

Thursday Night and Friday: Mostly clear. Lows around 37. Highs around 50.

Friday Night: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows around 36.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Patchy fog and frost. Highs around 51.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows around 37.

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Highs around 52.

Flood Impacts
13.2 Feet	Water floods houses in Wilton. The south bank levee near Wilton is overtopped.
12.0 Feet	Water flows on to the road near Wilton.
8.0 Feet	Low lying lands along the river begin to flood.