CNRFC Ensemble Plot for MRYC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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YUBA RIVER - MARYSVILLE (MRYC1)

Latitude:
39.18º N

Longitude:
121.52º W

Elevation:
88 Feet

Location: Yuba County in CA

River Group: Lower Sacramento

Issuance Time:

May 11 2025 at 9:05 AM PDT

Action/
Monitor:
74.0 Ft

Minor
Flood:
87.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
90.0 Ft

Major
Flood:
91.0 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | MRYC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
93.0 Feet	Top of levee. Stages above this level result in flooding outside the levee. (datum = used)
87.0 Feet	Flood stage.
80.0 Feet	Simpson Lane becomes impassible. Dantoni Road floods. More orchards flood.
79.0 Feet	Simpson Lane floods. Access into and out of Marysville via Simpson Lane bridge is cut off. Orchards within the levee system are flooded.
74.0 Feet	Monitor stage.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ016)

Today: Sunny. Not as warm. Highs 76 to 81. South winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph increasing to 35 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. A slight chance of rain showers after midnight. Lows around 51. South winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 40 mph.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Highs 63 to 71. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers in the evening. Lows around 48. South winds around 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph shifting to the northeast up to 10 mph after midnight.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 71 to 76. North winds up to 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph.

Tuesday Night: Clear. Lows around 51.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs 77 to 83.

Wednesday Night and Thursday: Clear. Lows around 54. Highs 78 to 88.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 60.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Highs 83 to 88.

Friday Night and Saturday: Mostly clear. Lows around 58. Highs 81 to 88.

Flood Impacts
93.0 Feet	Top of levee. Stages above this level result in flooding outside the levee. (datum = used)
87.0 Feet	Flood stage.
80.0 Feet	Simpson Lane becomes impassible. Dantoni Road floods. More orchards flood.
79.0 Feet	Simpson Lane floods. Access into and out of Marysville via Simpson Lane bridge is cut off. Orchards within the levee system are flooded.
74.0 Feet	Monitor stage.