CNRFC Ensemble Plot for MRYC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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YUBA RIVER - MARYSVILLE (MRYC1)

Latitude:
39.18º N

Longitude:
121.52º W

Elevation:
88 Feet

Location: Yuba County in CA

River Group: Lower Sacramento

Issuance Time:

Jul 07 2025 at 7:14 AM PDT

Action/
Monitor:
74.0 Ft

Minor
Flood:
87.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
90.0 Ft

Major
Flood:
91.0 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | MRYC1

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
		Model Traces

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
93.0 Feet	Top of levee. Stages above this level result in flooding outside the levee. (datum = used)
87.0 Feet	Flood stage.
80.0 Feet	Simpson Lane becomes impassible. Dantoni Road floods. More orchards flood.
79.0 Feet	Simpson Lane floods. Access into and out of Marysville via Simpson Lane bridge is cut off. Orchards within the levee system are flooded.
74.0 Feet	Monitor stage.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ016)

Today: Sunny. Highs around 95. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Clear. Lows 57 to 63. South winds up to 15 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs around 90. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Clear. Lows 57 to 63. South winds up to 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs around 93. Light winds.

Wednesday Night: Clear. Lows 62 to 70.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs around 101.

Thursday Night through Sunday: Clear. Lows 63 to 73. Highs around 101.

Flood Impacts
93.0 Feet	Top of levee. Stages above this level result in flooding outside the levee. (datum = used)
87.0 Feet	Flood stage.
80.0 Feet	Simpson Lane becomes impassible. Dantoni Road floods. More orchards flood.
79.0 Feet	Simpson Lane floods. Access into and out of Marysville via Simpson Lane bridge is cut off. Orchards within the levee system are flooded.
74.0 Feet	Monitor stage.