CNRFC Ensemble Plot for MVVC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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MOJAVE RIVER - VICTORVILLE (MVVC1)

Latitude:
34.57º N

Longitude:
117.32º W

Elevation:
2643 Feet

Location: San Bernardino County in CA

River Group: Southern California

Issuance Time:

Jul 06 2025 at 8:45 AM PDT

Action/
Monitor:
N/A

Minor
Flood:
16.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
18.0 Ft

Major
Flood:
19.0 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | MVVC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
19.0 Feet	Significant flows are occurring along the entire reach of the river, with flooding of adjacent farm lands north of victorville. The levees are threatened in the more densely populated areas of hesperia, victorville, and helendale, with overtopping possible in areas where vegetation or debris chokes the channel.
18.0 Feet	Significant flows have likely reached helendale and points to the north, with farm lands in the river bed and adjacent areas north of victorville inundated. Rock springs road in hesperia is in danger of washing out. Some erosion of the levees can be expected in victorville and helendale.
16.0 Feet	Significant flows reach farming areas north of victorville. Minor flooding of farmland adjacent to the river bed can be expected in oro grande. Some local erosion to the levees in hesperia and victorville is possible. Rock springs road has been overtopped and closed to traffic in hesperia.
13.0 Feet	AS WATER BEGINS TO FLOW IN THE NORMALLY DRY RIVERBED. LOW-WATER CROSSINGS WELL UPSTREAM OF THIS GAGE SUCH AS ROCK SPRINGS ROAD BELOW THE MOJAVE FORKS DAM MAY BE OVERTOPPED AND CLOSED. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH A POOL LEVEL OF 3005 FT AND ABOUT 2500 CFS. RELEASES FROM SILVERWOOD LAKE CAN ADD A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF INFLOW BEHIND THE DAM.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ060)

Tonight: Clear. Lows 57 to 67. Areas of winds west 10 to 15 mph. Gusts to 25 mph This Evening.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs 98 to 106. Light winds becoming south 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.

Monday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 59 to 69. Areas of winds southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusts to 30 mph in the evening.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 99 to 108. Light winds becoming southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 74. Areas of winds southwest 10 to 15 mph. Gusts to 25 mph in the evening.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Hot. Highs 102 to 111.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 74.

Thursday: Sunny, hot. Highs 102 to 110.

Thursday Night: Clear. Lows 64 to 74.

Friday: Sunny. Highs 101 to 109.

Friday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 73.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 100 to 109.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 73.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 101 to 109.

Flood Impacts
19.0 Feet	Significant flows are occurring along the entire reach of the river, with flooding of adjacent farm lands north of victorville. The levees are threatened in the more densely populated areas of hesperia, victorville, and helendale, with overtopping possible in areas where vegetation or debris chokes the channel.
18.0 Feet	Significant flows have likely reached helendale and points to the north, with farm lands in the river bed and adjacent areas north of victorville inundated. Rock springs road in hesperia is in danger of washing out. Some erosion of the levees can be expected in victorville and helendale.
16.0 Feet	Significant flows reach farming areas north of victorville. Minor flooding of farmland adjacent to the river bed can be expected in oro grande. Some local erosion to the levees in hesperia and victorville is possible. Rock springs road has been overtopped and closed to traffic in hesperia.
13.0 Feet	AS WATER BEGINS TO FLOW IN THE NORMALLY DRY RIVERBED. LOW-WATER CROSSINGS WELL UPSTREAM OF THIS GAGE SUCH AS ROCK SPRINGS ROAD BELOW THE MOJAVE FORKS DAM MAY BE OVERTOPPED AND CLOSED. THIS CORRESPONDS WITH A POOL LEVEL OF 3005 FT AND ABOUT 2500 CFS. RELEASES FROM SILVERWOOD LAKE CAN ADD A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF INFLOW BEHIND THE DAM.