CNRFC Ensemble Plot for SCOC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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EEL RIVER - SCOTIA (SCOC1)

Latitude:
40.49º N

Longitude:
124.1º W

Elevation:
36 Feet

Location: Humboldt County in CA

River Group: North Coast

Issuance Time:

Jul 06 2025 at 8:14 AM PDT

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Flow data on this product are unregulated / full natural flow.

Monthly Probability Plot

Monthly Streamflow Volume (1000s of Acre-Feet) Data Updated: Jul 06 2025 at 8:17 AM PDT
Prob	Jul*	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
10%	18.4	5.8	7.5	96.0	763.6	2443.6
25%	18.3	5.4	3.6	26.7	312.0	1472.7
50%	15.7	5.3	2.3	7.8	67.4	636.0
75%	12.5	1.9	1.2	3.4	18.2	211.4
90%	12.5	1.9	1.0	1.9	7.4	52.9

Mean	21.1	8.8	7.5	36.7	259.2	925.9
%Mean	74.4	60.2	30.7	21.3	26.0	68.7
Prob	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
10%	2688.4	2392.8	2070.6	1186.0	485.8	167.4
25%	1621.2	1236.3	1288.7	722.5	329.0	88.8
50%	917.6	781.9	856.0	337.8	139.4	45.8
75%	447.3	521.0	492.5	206.3	88.2	35.7
90%	194.0	162.3	254.7	134.8	60.4	28.1

Mean	1135.1	1011.1	999.8	516.3	228.4	79.7
%Mean	80.8	77.3	85.6	65.4	61.0	57.5
Note 1: %Mean is the "Median forecast monthly value (50%)" divided by the "monthly mean" (displayed as a %)
Note 2: For current month, graphic represents remaining forecast only, text represents observed + remaining forecast.

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ103)

Tonight: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows 49 to 59. West wind around 10 mph shifting to the east overnight.

Monday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Highs 64 to 79. West wind around 10 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 46 to 56. Southwest wind around 10 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Highs 60 to 73. West wind around 10 mph.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 46 to 56. Highs 60 to 73. Northwest wind up to 10 mph.

Wednesday Night and Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Lows 49 to 59. Highs 62 to 76.

Thursday Night through Saturday: Partly cloudy. Lows 49 to 59. Highs 65 to 80.

Saturday Night and Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Lows 49 to 59. Highs 63 to 77.

Flood Impacts
74.0 Feet	Extensive and severe flooding throughout the river valley with major damage to roads, bridges and structures. There will be numerous road closures including the Avenue of the Giants (Highway 254) and US Highway 101.
72.0 Feet	Extensive and severe flooding of all areas adjacent to the river is expected with possible damage to roads, bridges and other structures. Expect many road closures including the Avenue of the Giants (Highway 254) and possibly US Highway 101.
67.0 Feet	Expect significant flooding in all areas near the river with numerous road closures, including the Avenue of the Giants (Highway 254).
62.0 Feet	Flooding of many low lying areas near the river is likely. Numerous closures along the Avenue of the Giants (Highway 254).
55.0 Feet	Flooding of low lying areas near Shively is likely, along with possible closure of portions of the Avenue of the Giants (Highway 254).
52.0 Feet	Minor flooding in the Shively area is possible.
50.0 Feet	Flooding of the River's Edge RV Park in Rio Dell is likely. Occupants of the park will need to move their vehicles to higher ground.
48.0 Feet	Flooding of the River's Edge RV Park in Rio Dell is expected. Occupants of the park may need to move their vehicles to higher ground.
46.0 Feet	Minor flooding is possible in the northern portion of the River's Edge RV Park in Rio Dell. Occupants of the park need to be ready to move their vehicles to higher ground.