CNRFC Ensemble Plot for AROC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

Prev. Point

Next Point

Back to Points

Back to Home

PAJARO RIVER - CHITTENDEN (AROC1)

Latitude:
36.90º N

Longitude:
121.60º W

Elevation:
82 Feet

Location: Santa Cruz County in CA

River Group: Central Coast

Issuance Time:

Jan 08 2026 at 8:18 AM PST

Action/
Monitor:
22.0 Ft

Minor
Flood:
24.1 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
N/A

Major
Flood:
27.1 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | AROC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
33.73 Feet	Stage and flow of record. 02/03/1998. 25,100 cfs
29.0 Feet	Levees protecting Watsonville and Pajaro at risk of failure. Flooding throughout the Pajaro Valley.
27.1 Feet	Major Flood Stage. Levees protecting Pajaro at risk of overtopping at lowest points or severely strained if sandbagged. Seepage likely throughout the levee system.
25.1 Feet	Water levels within 2 feet of top of levee protecting Pajaro.
24.1 Feet	Minor Flood Stage. Water levels within 3 feet of top of levee protecting Pajaro. Increased potential for seepage through levee at vulnerable locations.
22.0 Feet	Monitor Stage. Water beginning to rise onto levee slopes.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ529)

Rest of Today: Sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Areas of frost after midnight. Lows in the mid 30s. North winds around 5 mph in the evening and becoming light.

Friday: Sunny. Areas of frost in the morning. Highs in the upper 50s. East winds around 5 mph.

Friday Night: Clear. Areas of frost after midnight. Lows in the upper 30s. Light winds.

Saturday: Sunny. Areas of frost in the morning. Highs in the lower 60s. Northeast winds around 5 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 40.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 60s.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Lows around 40.

Monday through Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Highs in the upper 60s. Lows in the lower 40s.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs around 70.

Flood Impacts
33.73 Feet	Stage and flow of record. 02/03/1998. 25,100 cfs
29.0 Feet	Levees protecting Watsonville and Pajaro at risk of failure. Flooding throughout the Pajaro Valley.
27.1 Feet	Major Flood Stage. Levees protecting Pajaro at risk of overtopping at lowest points or severely strained if sandbagged. Seepage likely throughout the levee system.
25.1 Feet	Water levels within 2 feet of top of levee protecting Pajaro.
24.1 Feet	Minor Flood Stage. Water levels within 3 feet of top of levee protecting Pajaro. Increased potential for seepage through levee at vulnerable locations.
22.0 Feet	Monitor Stage. Water beginning to rise onto levee slopes.