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| SAN LORENZO RIVER - BIG TREES (BTEC1) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Latitude: 37.04º N | Longitude: 122.07º W | Elevation: 227 Feet | ||||||||||||||||
| Location: Santa Cruz County in CA | ||||||||||||||||||
| River Group: Central Coast | ||||||||||||||||||
| Issuance Time: | Jan 08 2026 at 2:40 PM PST |
| Action/ Monitor: 14.0 Ft | Minor Flood: 16.5 Ft | Moderate Flood: 19.5 Ft | Major Flood: 21.76 Ft |
| Please Note: | Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty. |
| Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. | CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | BTEC1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Select up to 2 thresholds to use to calculate exceedance probabilities.
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| Location Photographs | ||
| ESRI™ Locator Map |
| Flood Impacts | |
| 21.76 Feet | Major Flooding. At approximately 21.76 feet discharge in the San Lorenzo River is approximately 15,000 cfs. Major flooding in the Felton Grove neighborhood occurs at this stage, with roadways several feet deep and waters inundating the approaches to the Felton Covered Bridge. Felton Covered Bridge Park begins to experience widespread flooding at shallow depths. At 15,000 cfs, the City of Santa Cruz downstream will experience more serious flooding. The flood wave may take 2-3 hours to reach Santa Cruz. |
| 19.5 Feet | Moderate Flooding. The St. Bernard Street area in Paradise Park is under several feet of water, with below grade floodplain infrastructure several feet deeper. St. Augustine Avenue neighborhood in Paradise Park begins to flood. Flooding imminent or already occurring in the Felton Grove neighborhood. Ground stories, first floors, and garages flooded. Felton Covered Bridge Park begins to flood. |
| 16.5 Feet | Minor Flooding. Flooding is either imminent or already occurring in Paradise Park, with initial flooding in the St. Bernard Street area. |
| 14.0 Feet | Monitor Stage. Stage can rise rapidly on the San Lorenzo River, up to several feet per hour. Approximately 2.5 feet below flood levels in Paradise Park and approximately 5.5 feet below flood stage in Felton Grove. |
| Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ512) |
| Today: Sunny. Highs in the 50s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 40. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Saturday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Monday: Sunny. Highs in the 50s to mid 60s. Monday Night and Tuesday: Clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the 60s. Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the 60s. Thursday: Sunny. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s. |
| Flood Impacts | |
| 21.76 Feet | Major Flooding. At approximately 21.76 feet discharge in the San Lorenzo River is approximately 15,000 cfs. Major flooding in the Felton Grove neighborhood occurs at this stage, with roadways several feet deep and waters inundating the approaches to the Felton Covered Bridge. Felton Covered Bridge Park begins to experience widespread flooding at shallow depths. At 15,000 cfs, the City of Santa Cruz downstream will experience more serious flooding. The flood wave may take 2-3 hours to reach Santa Cruz. |
| 19.5 Feet | Moderate Flooding. The St. Bernard Street area in Paradise Park is under several feet of water, with below grade floodplain infrastructure several feet deeper. St. Augustine Avenue neighborhood in Paradise Park begins to flood. Flooding imminent or already occurring in the Felton Grove neighborhood. Ground stories, first floors, and garages flooded. Felton Covered Bridge Park begins to flood. |
| 16.5 Feet | Minor Flooding. Flooding is either imminent or already occurring in Paradise Park, with initial flooding in the St. Bernard Street area. |
| 14.0 Feet | Monitor Stage. Stage can rise rapidly on the San Lorenzo River, up to several feet per hour. Approximately 2.5 feet below flood levels in Paradise Park and approximately 5.5 feet below flood stage in Felton Grove. |
