CNRFC Ensemble Plot for BLBC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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STONY CREEK - BLACK BUTTE RESERVOIR (BLBC1)

Latitude:
39.81º N

Longitude:
122.33º W

Elevation:
426 Feet

Location: Tehama County in CA

River Group: Upper Sacramento

Issuance Time:

Jan 02 2026 at 2:12 PM PST

Action/
Monitor:
N/A

Minor
Flood:
N/A

Moderate
Flood:
N/A

Major
Flood:
N/A

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | BLBC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ015)

Tonight: Windy. A chance of rain early in the evening, then rain in the late evening and early morning. A chance of rain late in the night. Lows 47 to 53. Southeast winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to around 45 mph.

Saturday: Rain in the morning, then rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Windy. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the afternoon. Highs around 53. South winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to around 45 mph.

Saturday Night: Rain, windy. Lows 44 to 51. South winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to around 45 mph.

Sunday: Rain, breezy. Highs around 52. South winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to around 40 mph.

Sunday Night: Rain. Lows 41 to 47. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph.

Monday: Rain. Highs around 48.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Lows 40 to 46.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain. Highs around 51.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Lows 38 to 43. Highs around 50.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. Lows around 34.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain. Highs around 50.

Thursday Night and Friday: Mostly clear. Lows around 34. Highs 48 to 54.