CNRFC Ensemble Plot for BLBC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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STONY CREEK - BLACK BUTTE RESERVOIR (BLBC1)

Latitude:
39.81º N

Longitude:
122.33º W

Elevation:
426 Feet

Location: Tehama County in CA

River Group: Upper Sacramento

Issuance Time:

May 11 2025 at 9:05 AM PDT

Action/
Monitor:
N/A

Minor
Flood:
N/A

Moderate
Flood:
N/A

Major
Flood:
N/A

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | BLBC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ015)

Today: Cooler. Rain showers likely early in the morning, then a chance of rain showers in the late morning and early afternoon. A slight chance of thunderstorms early in the afternoon, then rain showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Highs 61 to 69. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph decreasing to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then a slight chance of rain showers after midnight. Lows 44 to 49. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Warmer. Highs 71 to 76. North winds up to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Clear. Lows 46 to 52. North winds around 10 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs around 80. North winds around 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph.

Wednesday Night: Clear. Lows 51 to 57.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 86.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 59.

Friday: Partly cloudy. Highs around 86.

Friday Night through Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 52 to 61. Highs 81 to 86.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs around 86.