CNRFC Ensemble Plot for CREC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
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SMITH RIVER - JEDEDIAH SMITH SP NEAR CRESCENT CITY (CREC1)

Latitude:
41.79º N

Longitude:
124.08º W

Elevation:
79 Feet

Location: Del Norte County in CA

River Group: North Coast

Issuance Time:

Apr 30 2025 at 8:47 AM PDT

Action/
Monitor:
25.0 Ft

Minor
Flood:
29.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
34.0 Ft

Major
Flood:
37.0 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | CREC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
39.0 Feet	Extensive and severe flooding of all areas near the river will occur. Significant damage to roads, bridges and other structures near the river is likely. All low lying areas in and around the river will be flooded. All persons in the area should be prepared to take appropriate action to protect life and property.
37.0 Feet	Severe damage could be inflicted upon roads, bridges and other structures. All low lying areas in and around the river are likely to be flooded. Persons in these areas should be prepared to take appropriate actions to protect life and property.
36.0 Feet	Extensive is flooding possible along Highway 197 and US Highway 199 in the Gasquet area. Homes and campgrounds in these areas could be threatened, including portions of Jedediah Smith State Park.
35.0 Feet	Considerable flooding along Highway 197 and US Highway 199 in the Gasquet area will occur. Low lying homes in these areas are likely to be threatened.
34.0 Feet	Significant flooding along Highway 197 and along US Highway 199 in the Gasquet area. Some low-lying homes in these areas may be threatened.
32.0 Feet	Significant flooding along Highway 197 in the Gasquet area, with possible flooding of US Highway 199 near Gasquet. Some low-lying homes in these areas may be threatened.
29.0 Feet	Flooding along Highway 197 and low-lying roads near Gasquet is likely.
28.0 Feet	Flooding along lower portions of Highway 197 with possible flooding of roads near Gasquet.
26.0 Feet	Expect minor flooding along Highway 197 and other low-lying areas near the river.
25.0 Feet	Minor flooding of the lowest lying areas near the river may occur.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ101)

Today: Partly cloudy. Highs 57 to 70. Southwest wind around 5 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 40 to 50. West wind around 5 mph in the evening becoming light.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. Slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Highs 54 to 64. Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Friday Night: Cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of rain. Lows 40 to 50. Northwest wind around 10 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Highs 52 to 62. Northwest wind 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph.

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 37 to 47. Highs 54 to 69.

Monday through Tuesday: Mostly clear. Highs 62 to 76. Lows 40 to 50.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Lows 44 to 54. Highs 60 to 75.

Flood Impacts
39.0 Feet	Extensive and severe flooding of all areas near the river will occur. Significant damage to roads, bridges and other structures near the river is likely. All low lying areas in and around the river will be flooded. All persons in the area should be prepared to take appropriate action to protect life and property.
37.0 Feet	Severe damage could be inflicted upon roads, bridges and other structures. All low lying areas in and around the river are likely to be flooded. Persons in these areas should be prepared to take appropriate actions to protect life and property.
36.0 Feet	Extensive is flooding possible along Highway 197 and US Highway 199 in the Gasquet area. Homes and campgrounds in these areas could be threatened, including portions of Jedediah Smith State Park.
35.0 Feet	Considerable flooding along Highway 197 and US Highway 199 in the Gasquet area will occur. Low lying homes in these areas are likely to be threatened.
34.0 Feet	Significant flooding along Highway 197 and along US Highway 199 in the Gasquet area. Some low-lying homes in these areas may be threatened.
32.0 Feet	Significant flooding along Highway 197 in the Gasquet area, with possible flooding of US Highway 199 near Gasquet. Some low-lying homes in these areas may be threatened.
29.0 Feet	Flooding along Highway 197 and low-lying roads near Gasquet is likely.
28.0 Feet	Flooding along lower portions of Highway 197 with possible flooding of roads near Gasquet.
26.0 Feet	Expect minor flooding along Highway 197 and other low-lying areas near the river.
25.0 Feet	Minor flooding of the lowest lying areas near the river may occur.