CNRFC Ensemble Plot for MDSC1

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TUOLUMNE RIVER - MODESTO (MDSC1)

Latitude:
37.63º N

Longitude:
120.99º W

Elevation:
60 Feet

Location: Stanislaus County in CA

River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

Jul 16 2026 at 7:40 AM PDT

Action/
Monitor:
50.5 Ft

Minor
Flood:
55.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
66.0 Ft

Major
Flood:
67.0 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | MDSC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
67.0 Feet	Extensive flooding occurs. Flows in excess of 40,000 cfs could cause extensive damage to residential, industrial and commercial development in Modesto downstream of gage.
55.0 Feet	This is channel capacity through downtown Modesto.

Flood Impacts
67.0 Feet	Extensive flooding occurs. Flows in excess of 40,000 cfs could cause extensive damage to residential, industrial and commercial development in Modesto downstream of gage.
55.0 Feet	This is channel capacity through downtown Modesto.