CNRFC Ensemble Plot for MDSC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

Prev. Point

Next Point

Back to Points

Back to Home

TUOLUMNE RIVER - MODESTO (MDSC1)

Latitude:
37.63º N

Longitude:
120.99º W

Elevation:
60 Feet

Location: Stanislaus County in CA

River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

May 06 2025 at 8:12 AM PDT

Action/
Monitor:
50.5 Ft

Minor
Flood:
55.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
66.0 Ft

Major
Flood:
67.0 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | MDSC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
67.0 Feet	Extensive flooding occurs. Flows in excess of 40,000 cfs could cause extensive damage to residential, industrial and commercial development in Modesto downstream of gage.
55.0 Feet	This is channel capacity through downtown Modesto.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ019)

Tonight: Clear. Lows 50 to 56. Northwest winds up to 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs 78 to 87. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Clear. Lows 51 to 57. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 82 to 90. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 53 to 61. Northwest winds up to 15 mph.

Friday: Sunny. Highs 87 to 95.

Friday Night: Clear. Lows 56 to 64.

Saturday and Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Highs 87 to 96. Lows 54 to 64.

Sunday and Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Not as warm. Highs 75 to 84. Lows 49 to 59.

Monday through Tuesday: Mostly clear. Highs 65 to 74. Lows 46 to 54.

Flood Impacts
67.0 Feet	Extensive flooding occurs. Flows in excess of 40,000 cfs could cause extensive damage to residential, industrial and commercial development in Modesto downstream of gage.
55.0 Feet	This is channel capacity through downtown Modesto.