CNRFC Ensemble Plot for MSGC1

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MORMON SLOUGH - BELLOTA (MSGC1)

Latitude:
38.05º N

Longitude:
121.01º W

Elevation:
130 Feet

Location: San Joaquin County in CA

River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

Jun 16 2025 at 6:21 AM PDT

Action/
Monitor:
16.0 Ft

Minor
Flood:
22.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
30.9 Ft

Major
Flood:
31.9 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | MSGC1

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
		Model Traces

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
31.9 Feet	Top of Levee right bank levee. Water will overflow toward Bellota and Highway 26.
23.0 Feet	Danger Stage
22.0 Feet	Flood Stage
16.0 Feet	Monitor Stage - Bike trail within lower Calaveras River channel flooded.
14.2 Feet	UOP research within the Calaveras River channel is affected by water levels.
9.0 Feet	Water rises out of the pilot channel but not yet on the levee slopes.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ019)

Today: Sunny. Highs 84 to 94. West winds up to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Clear, cooler. Lows 48 to 54. West winds up to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Friday: Sunny. Highs 76 to 84. West winds up to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph.

Friday Night: Clear. Lows 48 to 54. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 35 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, breezy. Highs 76 to 84. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday Night: Clear. Lows 52 to 60.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 81 to 89.

Sunday Night through Tuesday Night: Clear. Lows 53 to 63. Highs 83 to 93.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs 92 to 98.

Flood Impacts
31.9 Feet	Top of Levee right bank levee. Water will overflow toward Bellota and Highway 26.
23.0 Feet	Danger Stage
22.0 Feet	Flood Stage
16.0 Feet	Monitor Stage - Bike trail within lower Calaveras River channel flooded.
14.2 Feet	UOP research within the Calaveras River channel is affected by water levels.
9.0 Feet	Water rises out of the pilot channel but not yet on the levee slopes.