CNRFC Ensemble Plot for VNSC1

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SAN JOAQUIN RIVER - VERNALIS (VNSC1)

Latitude:
37.68º N

Longitude:
121.27º W

Elevation:
35 Feet

Location: San Joaquin County in CA

River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

May 05 2025 at 8:26 AM PDT

Action/
Monitor:
24.5 Ft

Minor
Flood:
29.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
32.0 Ft

Major
Flood:
37.3 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | VNSC1

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
		Model Traces

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
37.29 Feet	Stages above 37.3 feet results in flooding outside the levees. Top of levee.
29.6 Feet	Homes along east bank of river on Airport Court in Manteca experience flooding.
26.0 Feet	Severe seepage occurs outside the levees. The area covered by seepage will increase as the river stage rises.
24.5 Feet	Monitor Stage - water reaches the toe of levee.
21.0 Feet	Seepage begins into crop area outside of levees.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ019)

Today: Sunny. Highs 79 to 87. Northwest winds up to 10 mph with gusts to around 25 mph.

Tonight: Clear. Lows 50 to 56. Northwest winds up to 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs 78 to 87. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Clear. Lows 51 to 57. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 82 to 90. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 53 to 61.

Friday: Sunny. Highs 87 to 95.

Friday Night: Clear. Lows 56 to 64.

Saturday and Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Highs 87 to 96. Lows 54 to 64.

Sunday and Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Not as warm. Highs 75 to 84. Lows 49 to 59.

Monday: Mostly sunny. Highs 65 to 74.

Flood Impacts
37.29 Feet	Stages above 37.3 feet results in flooding outside the levees. Top of levee.
29.6 Feet	Homes along east bank of river on Airport Court in Manteca experience flooding.
26.0 Feet	Severe seepage occurs outside the levees. The area covered by seepage will increase as the river stage rises.
24.5 Feet	Monitor Stage - water reaches the toe of levee.
21.0 Feet	Seepage begins into crop area outside of levees.