CNRFC Ensemble Plot for VNSC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

Prev. Point

Next Point

Back to Points

Back to Home

SAN JOAQUIN RIVER - VERNALIS (VNSC1)

Latitude:
37.68º N

Longitude:
121.27º W

Elevation:
35 Feet

Location: San Joaquin County in CA

River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

Jun 22 2025 at 8:53 AM PDT

Action/
Monitor:
24.5 Ft

Minor
Flood:
29.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
32.0 Ft

Major
Flood:
37.3 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | VNSC1

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
		Model Traces

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
37.29 Feet	Stages above 37.3 feet results in flooding outside the levees. Top of levee.
29.6 Feet	Homes along east bank of river on Airport Court in Manteca experience flooding.
26.0 Feet	Severe seepage occurs outside the levees. The area covered by seepage will increase as the river stage rises.
24.5 Feet	Monitor Stage - water reaches the toe of levee.
21.0 Feet	Seepage begins into crop area outside of levees.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ019)

Today: Sunny. Highs 85 to 93. West winds up to 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph.

Tonight: Clear. Lows 55 to 63. Northwest winds up to 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 85 to 93. West winds up to 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Clear. Lows 53 to 61. Northwest winds up to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs 88 to 96. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Clear. Lows 56 to 64.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs 90 to 96.

Thursday Night through Sunday: Clear. Lows 58 to 68. Highs 90 to 100.

Flood Impacts
37.29 Feet	Stages above 37.3 feet results in flooding outside the levees. Top of levee.
29.6 Feet	Homes along east bank of river on Airport Court in Manteca experience flooding.
26.0 Feet	Severe seepage occurs outside the levees. The area covered by seepage will increase as the river stage rises.
24.5 Feet	Monitor Stage - water reaches the toe of levee.
21.0 Feet	Seepage begins into crop area outside of levees.