CNRFC Ensemble Plot for NMSC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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STANISLAUS RIVER - NEW MELONES RESERVOIR (NMSC1)

Latitude:
37.96º N

Longitude:
120.52º W

Elevation:
1400 Feet

Location: Calaveras County in CA

River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

Jan 11 2026 at 8:00 AM PST

Action/
Monitor:
N/A

Minor
Flood:
N/A

Moderate
Flood:
N/A

Major
Flood:
N/A

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | NMSC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ067)

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 36 to 44. Light winds.

Monday: Patchy dense fog in the morning. Sunny. Highs 55 to 63. Light winds.

Monday Night: Clear. Lows 38 to 46. Light winds.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 56 to 68. Light winds.

Tuesday Night: Clear. Lows 39 to 49. Light winds.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs 57 to 69.

Wednesday Night: Clear. Lows 41 to 51.

Thursday through Friday Night: Clear. Highs 60 to 70. Lows 41 to 51.

Saturday through Sunday: Mostly clear. Highs 59 to 69. Lows 41 to 49.