CNRFC Ensemble Plot for OBBC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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STANISLAUS RIVER - ORANGE BLOSSOM (OBBC1)

Latitude:
37.79º N

Longitude:
120.76º W

Elevation:
117 Feet

Location: Stanislaus County in CA

River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

May 01 2025 at 9:40 AM PDT

Action/
Monitor:
13.0 Ft

Minor
Flood:
16.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
21.0 Ft

Major
Flood:
22.0 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | OBBC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
11.5 Feet	Caswell State Park access roads and park areas are flooded. Orange Blossom Park lower areas are flooded.
11.0 Feet	The lowest areas in Orange Blossom Park begins to flood. Caswell State Park lower areas are flooded.
10.5 Feet	Inundation of several camp sites at Caswell State Park occurs.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ019)

Today: Sunny. Highs 74 to 84. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows 49 to 57. West winds up to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Highs 63 to 73. West winds up to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 46 to 54. West winds up to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 69 to 78. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Sunday Night: Clear. Lows 50 to 58.

Monday: Sunny, warmer. Highs 75 to 85.

Monday Night through Thursday: Clear. Lows 51 to 58. Highs 77 to 87.

Flood Impacts
11.5 Feet	Caswell State Park access roads and park areas are flooded. Orange Blossom Park lower areas are flooded.
11.0 Feet	The lowest areas in Orange Blossom Park begins to flood. Caswell State Park lower areas are flooded.
10.5 Feet	Inundation of several camp sites at Caswell State Park occurs.