CNRFC Ensemble Plot for OBBC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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STANISLAUS RIVER - ORANGE BLOSSOM (OBBC1)

Latitude:
37.79º N

Longitude:
120.76º W

Elevation:
117 Feet

Location: Stanislaus County in CA

River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

Jan 11 2026 at 8:00 AM PST

Action/
Monitor:
13.0 Ft

Minor
Flood:
16.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
21.0 Ft

Major
Flood:
22.0 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | OBBC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
11.5 Feet	Caswell State Park access roads and park areas are flooded. Orange Blossom Park lower areas are flooded.
11.0 Feet	The lowest areas in Orange Blossom Park begins to flood. Caswell State Park lower areas are flooded.
10.5 Feet	Inundation of several camp sites at Caswell State Park occurs.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ019)

Today: Patchy fog early in the morning. Areas of fog late in the morning. Mostly sunny. Highs around 58. Light winds.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows 37 to 43. Light winds.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Patchy dense fog. Highs around 58. Light winds.

Tuesday Night: Clear in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows 38 to 44. Light winds.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs 55 to 61. Light winds.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows around 43.

Thursday: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Highs around 59.

Thursday Night through Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 44. Highs around 60.

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Highs around 59.

Flood Impacts
11.5 Feet	Caswell State Park access roads and park areas are flooded. Orange Blossom Park lower areas are flooded.
11.0 Feet	The lowest areas in Orange Blossom Park begins to flood. Caswell State Park lower areas are flooded.
10.5 Feet	Inundation of several camp sites at Caswell State Park occurs.