CNRFC Ensemble Plot for NWMC1

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SAN JOAQUIN RIVER - NEWMAN (NWMC1)

Latitude:
37.35º N

Longitude:
120.98º W

Elevation:
90 Feet

Location: Merced County in CA

River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

May 10 2025 at 8:53 AM PDT

Action/
Monitor:
63.0 Ft

Minor
Flood:
69.4 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
70.7 Ft

Major
Flood:
71.7 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Threshold Exceedance Plot Product Information

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | NWMC1

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)

		Prob. of Threshold Exceedance
		Model Traces

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
71.7 Feet	Top of levee rb
70.4 Feet	Danger stage.
70.0 Feet	Flood water reaches the top of the levee that surrounds the Newman waste water treatment plant.
69.4 Feet	Project flood stage.
66.26 Feet	Peak stage of record. 4/9/2006
66.14 Feet	1/28/1997
65.0 Feet	The fisherman's bend trailer park north of hills ferry road begins to flood.
64.0 Feet	The Wastewater Treatment Plant begins taking on river water and flood pumping begins.
63.6 Feet	Sand slough will flow.
63.0 Feet	Monitor stage. Levee patrols required.
62.0 Feet	Water seepage begins outside the levee along the river, near the newman waste water treatment plant.
55.0 Feet	The city of Newman Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP) begins to flood at the lowest point. Newman Police Department shooting range a the WWTP is also affected.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ302)

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday: Not as warm. Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Cooler, sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the evening.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Highs in the lower 70s. Lows in the upper 40s.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs around 80.

Wednesday Night through Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the mid 80s.

Friday and Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 80s. Lows in the mid 50s.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs in the mid 80s.

Flood Impacts
71.7 Feet	Top of levee rb
70.4 Feet	Danger stage.
70.0 Feet	Flood water reaches the top of the levee that surrounds the Newman waste water treatment plant.
69.4 Feet	Project flood stage.
66.26 Feet	Peak stage of record. 4/9/2006
66.14 Feet	1/28/1997
65.0 Feet	The fisherman's bend trailer park north of hills ferry road begins to flood.
64.0 Feet	The Wastewater Treatment Plant begins taking on river water and flood pumping begins.
63.6 Feet	Sand slough will flow.
63.0 Feet	Monitor stage. Levee patrols required.
62.0 Feet	Water seepage begins outside the levee along the river, near the newman waste water treatment plant.
55.0 Feet	The city of Newman Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP) begins to flood at the lowest point. Newman Police Department shooting range a the WWTP is also affected.