CNRFC Ensemble Plot for PATC1

*** IMPORTANT *** Week of June 22 - Website Data Outage [View details]

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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SAN JOAQUIN RIVER - PATTERSON (PATC1)

Latitude:
37.49º N

Longitude:
121.08º W

Elevation:
97 Feet

Location: Stanislaus County in CA

River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

Jun 22 2025 at 8:53 AM PDT

Action/
Monitor:
48.0 Ft

Minor
Flood:
54.7 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
57.3 Ft

Major
Flood:
58.3 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | PATC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
58.3 Feet	Stages above 58.3 feet result in flooding outside the levee. Top of levee.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ019)

Tonight: Clear. Lows 52 to 60. Northwest winds up to 15 mph.

Monday: Sunny. Highs 85 to 93. Northwest winds up to 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph.

Monday Night: Clear. Lows 55 to 63. Northwest winds up to 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 86 to 94. West winds up to 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Clear. Lows 53 to 61. Northwest winds up to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs 90 to 96.

Wednesday Night: Clear. Lows 56 to 64.

Thursday through Sunday: Clear. Highs 89 to 99. Lows 56 to 66.

Flood Impacts
58.3 Feet	Stages above 58.3 feet result in flooding outside the levee. Top of levee.