CNRFC Ensemble Plot for TISC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
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SACRAMENTO RIVER - TISDALE WEIR (TISC1)

Latitude:
39.03º N

Longitude:
121.82º W

Elevation:
45 Feet

Location: Sutter County in CA

River Group: Upper Sacramento

Issuance Time:

Dec 25 2025 at 9:13 PM PST

Action/
Monitor:
44.1 Ft

Minor
Flood:
51.6 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
54.6 Ft

Major
Flood:
55.6 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | TISC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
55.6 Feet	Stages above 55.6 feet results in flooding outside the levees. Top of levee.
44.1 Feet	Tisdale Weir crest elevation. Overflow begins into the Tisdale Bypass. This water eventually ends up in the Sutter Bypass.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ016)

Tonight: Rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of rain after midnight. Breezy. Some thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall in the evening. Lows 43 to 49. South winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to around 40 mph.

Friday: A chance of rain in the morning, then rain in the afternoon. Breezy. Highs around 50. Southeast winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to around 40 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely in the evening, then a chance of rain after midnight. Lows 39 to 46. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph decreasing to 20 mph after midnight.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain in the morning, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. Highs around 48. North winds up to 10 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 34 to 40. North winds around 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph.

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs around 48.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 36.

Monday through Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Highs 47 to 54. Lows around 36.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 38. Highs 48 to 54.

New Years Day: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain. Highs around 48.

Flood Impacts
55.6 Feet	Stages above 55.6 feet results in flooding outside the levees. Top of levee.
44.1 Feet	Tisdale Weir crest elevation. Overflow begins into the Tisdale Bypass. This water eventually ends up in the Sutter Bypass.