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| UPPER PENITENCIA CREEK - PIEDMOND ROAD (UPCC1) | ||||||||||||||||||
| Latitude: 37.39º N | Longitude: 121.84º W | Elevation: 205 Feet | ||||||||||||||||
| Location: Santa Clara County in CA | ||||||||||||||||||
| River Group: Central Coast | ||||||||||||||||||
| Issuance Time: | Feb 06 2026 at 1:50 PM PST |
| Action/ Monitor: 6.5 Ft | Minor Flood: 8.0 Ft | Moderate Flood: 9.0 Ft | Major Flood: 10.5 Ft |
| Please Note: | Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty. |
| Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. | CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | UPCC1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Select up to 2 thresholds to use to calculate exceedance probabilities.
Threshold 1:
Threshold 2:
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| Location Photographs | ||
| ESRI™ Locator Map |
| Flood Impacts | |
| 10.5 Feet | Major Flood Stage. Sustained flooding would cause floodwaters to move north westerly towards Capitol and I-680, as well as south westerly toward McKee Road. I-680 at risk of flooding under the McKee and Alum Rock interchanges. Downstream of I-680, floodwaters move southwards toward Lower Silver Creek, and northwards following parallel to Coyote Creek, south of Lundy Avenue. Water may move further north toward Milpitas, crossing Montague Expwy and following Capitol Avenue toward I-880. |
| 9.0 Feet | Moderate Flood Stage. Flooding may occur along Penitencia Creek Road with overbanking occurring at multiple locations, mostly spilling southward upstream of Capitol Avenue. The Commodore neighborhood may experience flooding. Neighborhood south of Educational Park Drive floods. Flea Market and surrounding area along Berryessa Creek at risk. Significant overbanking may occur on both sides of the Creek, sheet flowing and ponding against I-680 if flooding is sustained. |
| 8.0 Feet | Minor Flood Stage. Bridges and surrounding areas near Mabury Road, Educational Park Drive, and King Road at risk. Neighborhood streets around Commodore Drive and Cape Horn Court at risk, as well as flow onto Educational Park Drive. Overbanking may occur near Noble Ave along Penitencia Creek Road. Baseball field and parking lot near KIPP Collegiate / Independence High School may flood. |
| 6.5 Feet | Monitor Stage. Culvert debris can adversely affect capacity at Mabury Road and Educational Park Drive. |
