CNRFC Ensemble Plot for VNSC1

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SAN JOAQUIN RIVER - VERNALIS (VNSC1)

Latitude:
37.68º N

Longitude:
121.27º W

Elevation:
35 Feet

Location: San Joaquin County in CA

River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

May 01 2025 at 9:40 AM PDT

Action/
Monitor:
24.5 Ft

Minor
Flood:
29.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
32.0 Ft

Major
Flood:
37.3 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | VNSC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
37.29 Feet	Stages above 37.3 feet results in flooding outside the levees. Top of levee.
29.6 Feet	Homes along east bank of river on Airport Court in Manteca experience flooding.
26.0 Feet	Severe seepage occurs outside the levees. The area covered by seepage will increase as the river stage rises.
24.5 Feet	Monitor Stage - water reaches the toe of levee.
21.0 Feet	Seepage begins into crop area outside of levees.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ019)

Today: Sunny. Highs 74 to 84. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows 49 to 57. West winds up to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Highs 63 to 73. West winds up to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 46 to 54. West winds up to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Highs 69 to 78. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Sunday Night: Clear. Lows 50 to 58.

Monday: Sunny, warmer. Highs 75 to 85.

Monday Night through Thursday: Clear. Lows 51 to 58. Highs 77 to 87.

Flood Impacts
37.29 Feet	Stages above 37.3 feet results in flooding outside the levees. Top of levee.
29.6 Feet	Homes along east bank of river on Airport Court in Manteca experience flooding.
26.0 Feet	Severe seepage occurs outside the levees. The area covered by seepage will increase as the river stage rises.
24.5 Feet	Monitor Stage - water reaches the toe of levee.
21.0 Feet	Seepage begins into crop area outside of levees.