CNRFC Ensemble Plot for VNSC1

*** IMPORTANT *** Week of June 16 - Website Data Outage [View details]

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
WY Trend	WY Accum	Multi-Yr Accum
Historical	Verification	Custom

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SAN JOAQUIN RIVER - VERNALIS (VNSC1)

Latitude:
37.68º N

Longitude:
121.27º W

Elevation:
35 Feet

Location: San Joaquin County in CA

River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

Jun 16 2025 at 6:23 AM PDT

Action/
Monitor:
24.5 Ft

Minor
Flood:
29.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
32.0 Ft

Major
Flood:
37.3 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | VNSC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
37.29 Feet	Stages above 37.3 feet results in flooding outside the levees. Top of levee.
29.6 Feet	Homes along east bank of river on Airport Court in Manteca experience flooding.
26.0 Feet	Severe seepage occurs outside the levees. The area covered by seepage will increase as the river stage rises.
24.5 Feet	Monitor Stage - water reaches the toe of levee.
21.0 Feet	Seepage begins into crop area outside of levees.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ019)

Today: Sunny. Highs 83 to 91. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Clear. Lows 50 to 58. Northwest winds up to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 87 to 94. Northwest winds up to 10 mph with gusts to around 20 mph.

Tuesday Night: Clear. Lows 55 to 63. Northwest winds up to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny. Highs 92 to 100. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night: Clear. Lows 55 to 63.

juneteenth: Sunny. Highs 86 to 94.

Thursday Night through Friday Night: Clear. Lows 50 to 57. Highs 83 to 93.

Saturday and Saturday Night: Clear. Highs 76 to 84. Lows 50 to 60.

Sunday: Sunny. Highs 82 to 90.

Flood Impacts
37.29 Feet	Stages above 37.3 feet results in flooding outside the levees. Top of levee.
29.6 Feet	Homes along east bank of river on Airport Court in Manteca experience flooding.
26.0 Feet	Severe seepage occurs outside the levees. The area covered by seepage will increase as the river stage rises.
24.5 Feet	Monitor Stage - water reaches the toe of levee.
21.0 Feet	Seepage begins into crop area outside of levees.