CNRFC Ensemble Plot for VNSC1

Prev. Point

Next Point

Back to Points

Back to Home

SAN JOAQUIN RIVER - VERNALIS (VNSC1)

Latitude:
37.68º N

Longitude:
121.27º W

Elevation:
35 Feet

Location: San Joaquin County in CA

River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

May 22 2026 at 9:34 AM PDT

Action/
Monitor:
24.5 Ft

Minor
Flood:
29.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
32.0 Ft

Major
Flood:
37.3 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | VNSC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
37.29 Feet	Stages above 37.3 feet results in flooding outside the levees. Top of levee.
29.6 Feet	Homes along east bank of river on Airport Court in Manteca experience flooding.
26.0 Feet	Severe seepage occurs outside the levees. The area covered by seepage will increase as the river stage rises.
24.5 Feet	Monitor Stage - water reaches the toe of levee.
21.0 Feet	Seepage begins into crop area outside of levees.

Flood Impacts
37.29 Feet	Stages above 37.3 feet results in flooding outside the levees. Top of levee.
29.6 Feet	Homes along east bank of river on Airport Court in Manteca experience flooding.
26.0 Feet	Severe seepage occurs outside the levees. The area covered by seepage will increase as the river stage rises.
24.5 Feet	Monitor Stage - water reaches the toe of levee.
21.0 Feet	Seepage begins into crop area outside of levees.