CNRFC Ensemble Plot for VNSC1

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SAN JOAQUIN RIVER - VERNALIS (VNSC1)

Latitude:
37.68º N

Longitude:
121.27º W

Elevation:
35 Feet

Location: San Joaquin County in CA

River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

Jan 07 2026 at 3:09 PM PST

Action/
Monitor:
24.5 Ft

Minor
Flood:
29.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
32.0 Ft

Major
Flood:
37.3 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | VNSC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
37.29 Feet	Stages above 37.3 feet results in flooding outside the levees. Top of levee.
29.6 Feet	Homes along east bank of river on Airport Court in Manteca experience flooding.
26.0 Feet	Severe seepage occurs outside the levees. The area covered by seepage will increase as the river stage rises.
24.5 Feet	Monitor Stage - water reaches the toe of levee.
21.0 Feet	Seepage begins into crop area outside of levees.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ019)

Tonight: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain late in the night. Colder. Lows 36 to 43. West winds up to 10 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Thursday: Patchy dense fog in the morning. Mostly sunny. Highs 46 to 54. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Areas of frost after midnight. Lows around 34. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Friday: Areas of frost in the morning. Mostly sunny. Highs around 49. Light winds.

Friday Night: Mostly clear. Areas of frost and patchy fog after midnight. Lows around 35. Light winds.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. Areas of frost and patchy fog. Highs around 51.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows around 37.

Sunday and Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Highs around 51. Lows around 38.

Monday: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Highs around 53.

Monday Night: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows around 40.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Highs 53 to 58.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows around 42.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Highs 54 to 60.

Flood Impacts
37.29 Feet	Stages above 37.3 feet results in flooding outside the levees. Top of levee.
29.6 Feet	Homes along east bank of river on Airport Court in Manteca experience flooding.
26.0 Feet	Severe seepage occurs outside the levees. The area covered by seepage will increase as the river stage rises.
24.5 Feet	Monitor Stage - water reaches the toe of levee.
21.0 Feet	Seepage begins into crop area outside of levees.