CNRFC Ensemble Plot for MSGC1

Short-Rng Pks	10D Prob	10 Accum
4x5D Prob	Mnth Prob	Seas Trnd
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MORMON SLOUGH - BELLOTA (MSGC1)

Latitude:
38.05º N

Longitude:
121.01º W

Elevation:
130 Feet

Location: San Joaquin County in CA

River Group: San Joaquin

Issuance Time:

Jan 06 2026 at 2:08 PM PST

Action/
Monitor:
16.0 Ft

Minor
Flood:
22.0 Ft

Moderate
Flood:
30.9 Ft

Major
Flood:
31.9 Ft

Please Note:

Ensemble forecasts produced by CNRFC only consider meteorological uncertainty and do not account for hydrologic uncertainty.

Short-Range Peak Exceedance Plot Product Info. Plot Type:

CSV Ensemble Files (Data in kcfs): Forecast Group | MSGC1

Cursor readout:

Show:

		Official Forecast (Deterministic)
		Ensemble Mean
		Model Traces

	Hourly Probabilities
		0-5% chance
		5-25% chance
		25-40% chance
		40-60% chance

What information is considered in this forecast?

Verification / Historical Plots
<-- Previous Forecast	Forecast Date: Forecast Cycle:

Location Photographs
Upstream Photo	Gage House Photo	Downstream Photo

ESRI™ Locator Map

Flood Impacts
31.9 Feet	Top of Levee right bank levee. Water will overflow toward Bellota and Highway 26.
23.0 Feet	Danger Stage
22.0 Feet	Flood Stage
16.0 Feet	Monitor Stage - Bike trail within lower Calaveras River channel flooded.
14.2 Feet	UOP research within the Calaveras River channel is affected by water levels.
9.0 Feet	Water rises out of the pilot channel but not yet on the levee slopes.

Official 7 Day National Weather Service Forecast (CAZ019)

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Patchy fog through the night. Lows 43 to 49. Light winds.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Patchy fog through the day. Highs 51 to 58. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Patchy fog through the night. A slight chance of rain after midnight. Lows 37 to 42. West winds up to 10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Highs 46 to 52. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Areas of frost after midnight. Lows around 34. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 25 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Areas of frost. Highs around 49.

Friday Night: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows around 36.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Areas of frost and patchy fog. Highs around 50.

Saturday Night and Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows around 37. Highs around 51.

Sunday Night and Monday: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows around 38. Highs 49 to 55.

Monday Night and Tuesday: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows around 40. Highs around 54.

Flood Impacts
31.9 Feet	Top of Levee right bank levee. Water will overflow toward Bellota and Highway 26.
23.0 Feet	Danger Stage
22.0 Feet	Flood Stage
16.0 Feet	Monitor Stage - Bike trail within lower Calaveras River channel flooded.
14.2 Feet	UOP research within the Calaveras River channel is affected by water levels.
9.0 Feet	Water rises out of the pilot channel but not yet on the levee slopes.