RAW ESP APRIL-JULY STREAMFLOW VOLUMES
ZCZC RNOHFSAJV
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / CALIFORNIA-NEVADA RFC / SACRAMENTO CA
CALIFORNIA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES / SACRAMENTO CA
834 AM PLT TUE MAY 21 2013
CHPS/ESP RAW MODEL GUIDANCE
SEE WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/WATER_RESOURCES_UPDATE.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
APRIL-JULY STREAMFLOW VOLUMES IN 1000AF (SRC=D)
05/21 05/20 05/18 05/14 05/07
----- ----- ----- ----- -----
WMSO3 MAX: 196 196 193 198 210
WILLIAMSON RIVER MIN: 177 178 178 179 184
CHILOQUIN PROB: 180 181 182 184 193
OBS: 106 105 102 97 85
(AVG: 320) %AVG: 56% 57% 57% 57% 60%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% -3%
FTJC1 MAX: 101 108 104 106 125
SCOTT RIVER MIN: 87 87 87 87 82
FORT JONES PROB: 90 93 91 91 90
OBS: 74 73 71 67 55
(AVG: 181) %AVG: 50% 51% 50% 50% 50%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% 0%
CEGC1 MAX: 345 359 350 354 434
TRINITY MIN: 300 303 306 311 309
TRINITY LK PROB: 309 316 317 320 331
OBS: 240 238 233 223 192
(AVG: 635) %AVG: 49% 50% 50% 50% 52%
DELTA: 0% 0% -1% -2%
SHDC1 MAX: 1103 1136 1148 1133 1232
SACRAMENTO MIN: 1045 1050 1047 1046 1061
SHASTA PROB: 1059 1068 1065 1067 1096
OBS: 598 591 575 543 484
(AVG: 1790) %AVG: 59% 60% 59% 60% 61%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% -1%
ORDC1 MAX: 708 722 704 721 855
FEATHER MIN: 646 647 653 643 647
OROVILLE PROB: 656 659 663 652 685
OBS: 477 472 461 436 390
(AVG: 1760) %AVG: 37% 37% 38% 37% 39%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% -1%
05/21 05/20 05/18 05/14 05/07
----- ----- ----- ----- -----
HLEC1 MAX: 327 336 324 353 486
YUBA MIN: 293 294 295 297 297
ENGLEBRIGHT FNF PROB: 297 297 298 300 335
OBS: 225 223 219 209 181
(AVG: 995) %AVG: 30% 30% 30% 30% 34%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% -3%
FOLC1 MAX: 489 472 499 515 635
AMERICAN MIN: 422 422 422 420 433
FOLSOM FNF PROB: 430 429 432 431 475
OBS: 383 379 369 347 298
(AVG: 1230) %AVG: 35% 35% 35% 35% 39%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% -3%
CMPC1 MAX: 220 226 228 232 242
MOKELUMNE MIN: 200 201 204 202 200
PARDEE PROB: 204 206 209 208 212
OBS: 162 160 156 144 121
(AVG: 460) %AVG: 44% 45% 45% 45% 46%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% -1%
NMSC1 MAX: 352 362 368 366 403
STANISLAUS MIN: 319 321 326 323 319
NEW MELONES PROB: 326 329 333 330 347
OBS: 221 218 212 196 165
(AVG: 695) %AVG: 47% 47% 48% 48% 50%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% -2%
NDPC1 MAX: 655 651 672 676 738
TUOLUMNE MIN: 573 577 582 584 582
NEW DON PEDRO PROB: 594 590 602 605 635
OBS: 426 420 407 371 305
(AVG: 1230) %AVG: 48% 48% 49% 49% 52%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% -2%
05/21 05/20 05/18 05/14 05/07
----- ----- ----- ----- -----
POHC1 MAX: 215 216 222 224 250
MERCED RIVER MIN: 195 196 198 198 197
POHONO BRIDGE PROB: 200 201 205 204 213
OBS: 146 144 140 128 108
(AVG: 360) %AVG: 56% 56% 57% 57% 59%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% -3%
EXQC1 MAX: 284 285 294 295 343
MERCED MIN: 260 261 265 264 262
EXCHEQUER PROB: 265 267 271 271 284
OBS: 204 201 196 182 156
(AVG: 645) %AVG: 41% 41% 42% 42% 44%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% -2%
FRAC1 MAX: 601 580 609 598 707
SAN JOAQUIN MIN: 506 514 525 523 536
MILLERTON PROB: 532 537 546 550 581
OBS: 346 339 328 297 248
(AVG: 1270) %AVG: 42% 42% 43% 43% 46%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% -3%
PFTC1 MAX: 482 488 509 509 613
KINGS MIN: 419 423 441 439 442
PINE FLAT PROB: 436 435 453 452 502
OBS: 292 288 279 253 215
(AVG: 1250) %AVG: 35% 35% 36% 36% 40%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% -4%
TMDC1 MAX: 83 84 86 85 106
KAWEAH MIN: 74 74 75 74 72
LK KAWEAH PROB: 75 75 76 76 82
OBS: 60 60 58 53 44
(AVG: 290) %AVG: 26% 26% 26% 26% 28%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% -1%
05/21 05/20 05/18 05/14 05/07
----- ----- ----- ----- -----
SCSC1 MAX: 10 9 8 10 12
TULE MIN: 8 8 7 8 8
LK SUCCESS PROB: 8 8 7 8 9
OBS: 6 6 6 6 5
(AVG: 66) %AVG: 12% 12% 11% 12% 14%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% -1%
ISAC1 MAX: 108 111 116 115 137
KERN MIN: 90 91 92 89 94
LK ISABELLA PROB: 94 95 97 95 114
OBS: 64 63 61 55 46
(AVG: 480) %AVG: 20% 20% 20% 20% 24%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% -3%
FARC1 MAX: 114 110 116 117 129
TRUCKEE RIVER MIN: 99 99 100 101 95
FARAD PROB: 101 101 102 104 106
OBS: 72 70 68 63 51
(AVG: 260) %AVG: 39% 39% 39% 40% 41%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% -1%
WOOC1 MAX: 33 33 32 34 39
WF CARSON RIVER MIN: 27 27 27 27 29
WOODFORDS PROB: 28 28 29 29 32
OBS: 20 19 19 17 14
(AVG: 56) %AVG: 50% 50% 51% 52% 57%
DELTA: 0% -1% -1% -7%
GRDN2 MAX: 102 104 106 106 119
EF CARSON RIVER MIN: 86 87 88 87 86
GARDNERVILLE PROB: 90 93 94 93 98
OBS: 58 57 55 49 39
(AVG: 189) %AVG: 48% 49% 49% 49% 52%
DELTA: -1% -1% 0% -3%
05/21 05/20 05/18 05/14 05/07
----- ----- ----- ----- -----
STWN2 MAX: 55 60 61 62 73
CARSON RIVER MIN: 43 45 46 46 43
CARSON CITY PROB: 46 49 50 50 55
OBS: 37 36 34 30 22
(AVG: 188) %AVG: 25% 26% 27% 27% 29%
DELTA: 0% -1% -1% -4%
WWBC1 MAX: 95 97 99 102 123
W WALKER RIVER MIN: 79 81 84 86 97
BLO LITTLE WALKER PROB: 86 88 90 93 107
OBS: 45 44 42 36 28
(AVG: 156) %AVG: 55% 56% 58% 60% 69%
DELTA: 0% -2% -4% -13%
BPRC1 MAX: 17 18 19 19 31
EAST WALKER MIN: 12 13 14 13 22
BRIDGEPORT PROB: 14 15 16 15 25
OBS: 5 5 4 3 3
(AVG: 59) %AVG: 24% 25% 27% 26% 42%
DELTA: -1% -3% -1% -17%
PALN2 MAX: 41 41 38 41 57
HUMBOLDT RIVER MIN: 22 21 20 16 14
PALISADE PROB: 23 22 22 23 20
OBS: 14 14 13 12 11
(AVG: 250) %AVG: 9% 9% 9% 9% 8%
DELTA: 0% 0% 0% 1%
MHSN2 MAX: 11 11 12 13 15
MARYS RIVER MIN: 6 6 7 7 7
ABV HOT SPRGS CK PROB: 7 8 9 9 9
OBS: 5 5 4 3 3
(AVG: 39) %AVG: 19% 19% 23% 24% 23%
DELTA: 0% -3% -4% -3%
05/21 05/20 05/18 05/14 05/07
----- ----- ----- ----- -----
HREN2 MAX: 22 24 23 32 49
HUMBOLDT RIVER MIN: 7 7 7 7 11
ELKO PROB: 11 13 11 16 20
OBS: 4 4 4 4 4
(AVG: 154) %AVG: 7% 8% 7% 11% 13%
DELTA: 0% 0% -2% -5%
MAX: REASONABLE MAXIMUM (10% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE)
MIN: REASONABLE MINIMUM (90% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE)
PROB: MOST PROBABLE (50% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE)
OBS: OBSERVED TO DATE (INCLUDED IN MAX/MIN/PROB)
%AVG: MOST PROBABLE (ESPRESSED AS PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
DELTA: CHANGE IN MOST PROBABLE (EXPRESSED AS PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
$$
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