...TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NW TO BRING SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO NRN CA
& THE SIERRA WEDS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS THURS...
...DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SAT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, A
DEVELOPING LOW MAY BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO COASTAL SRN CA SUN...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (TUE PM - MON AM)...

Forecast remains on track with only minor updates to the afternoon
package. High pressure sits overhead as a trough approaches from the
northwest. This system will bring showers into nrn CA tonight before
spreading inland throughout the day tomorrow. Showers spreading into
NV in the afternoon and into the nrn/central Sierra. Chances of
thunderstorms over these areas as well. The trough will then swing
inland while digging south the rest of Wednesday. Lingering showers
over NV on Thursday as the system exits with strong high pressure
building in behind it allowing conditions to dry out.

Models continue to develop another trough over the Intermountain
West late in the week moving south through the region before forming
into a closed low just offshore of srn CA into Saturday. The low
should rotate offshore throughout the rest of the weekend picking up
moisture. There is still uncertainty on the positioning of this
system and therefore any resulting precip. It should be dry as it
moves across the region but after taking in moisture should be
rotating bands of precip towards srn CA, but whether or not those
reach land and how much/how far spreads inland will depend on where
the low ends up. For now amounts look minimal at a few hundredths of
an inch or so, though 12z models have shifted lighter showers
further northward along more of coastal srn CA than previously.

The forecast was a blend of the morning WPC guidance and the latest
NBM. Added in a little of the GFS/ECMWF for Sunday to show showers
along the srn CA coast. Best totals over the Smith Basin and srn OR
Cascades. QPF through the period: 0.30-1" north coast, 0.75-1.50"
srn OR Cascades, 0.10-0.50" rest of nrn CA, and 0.10" or less
generally across most of the Sierra, and a few hundredths or so
along the coast from Ventura County to San Diego.