...DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
THE AREA...
...CHANCES FOR HEAVIER MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A PAIR OF SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: THU PM - WED AM)...

Forecast overall remains on track for a series of upper lows and
associated cold fronts to bring widespread precip to the region over
the next six days. An upper low continues to form offshore of
central CA and will head towards soCal/Baja the rest of today
bringing some showers to the srn CA coast tonight. The main upper
low and cold front approaching from the northwest will also bring
initial showers to the north coast tonight before the main system
moves through Friday into Saturday. No big changes on this first
system since this morning, the GFS remains lagging behind the ECMWF
by a few hours. The upper trough will move through west to east
across nrn CA and NV later Friday into Saturday. Scattered showers
Saturday as the region sits between systems.

The second cold front will arrive some time Sunday morning bringing
the next round of precip to nrn CA. The trough should deepen just
offshore of CA before moving through the region on Monday/Tuesday.
The models have come closer together compared to earlier runs on
this trough, the GFS has deepened the system a bit while the ECMWF
has shifted it northward. The result was relatively minor changes up
or down 0.10-0.25" for this second system.

The biggest change came in the final approaching cold front and
upper low at the end of the forecast window. Both the GFS and the
ECMWF have moved up the arrival timing of the next front,
unfortunately while maintaining the timing difference of about 6
hours or so between themselves. The GFS now brings showers into the
north coast Tuesday afternoon while the ECMWF brings them in Tuesday
evening. This brought QPF up across nw CA and the north SF Bay by
0.10-0.50".

To summarize, a series of cold fronts and associated upper
troughs/lows will bring rounds of widespread precipitation to the
region over the next six days. The first Friday/Saturday, the second
Sunday/Monday, and the third later Tuesday/Wednesday. QPF through
12z Weds: 2.25-4.50" Sonoma County northward along the coast (4-
5.50" Smith Basin/King Range), 3-6" Shasta, 1.50-4.75" Sierra, 0.75-
1.75" Bay Area, 0.50-1.25" central coast (up to 2" Santa Cruz
mountains and Big Sur coast), 0.25-1.50" down the valleys (up to 2"
closer to the foothills), and 0.50-1.50" coastal soCal.

Please Note: This product may NOT be routinely updated.
Please refer to the following product issued by the CNRFC
www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/Daily-Briefing for a graphical summary of
weather and hydrologic conditions.