...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORM ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CA/NV REST OF TODAY...
...LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY OVER NRN CA WITH PASSING FRONT...
...POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIPITATION LATE WEEKEND WITH SYSTEM OUT OF
GULF OF ALASKA...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (MON PM - SUN AM)...

Forecast overall remains on track, only minor changes to the QPF
compared to this morning. An upper trough currently sits over srn CA
this afternoon with some light scattered showers showing up over
central and srn CA on radar. Lightning detection has picked up a few
flashes as well but nowhere near the activity we saw this weekend.
Observations over the past 5 hours show some orographically enhanced
precip over the Sierra with gages reporting anywhere from 0.10-
0.75". The San Diego area also has gages reporting from a few
hundredths to nearly 0.25". Convective showers and thunderstorms
remain a possibility the rest of today, particularly over
central/southern interior CA and into central/srn NV as the trough
gradually exits into the Four Corners.

Some brief ridging for Tuesday into Wednesday will dry conditions
back out over the region before a low and front descending into the
PacNW from BC sends additional shower activity into nrn CA for mid
week. Expecting precip to stay north of I-80 through Wednesday
evening. The system then digs into the region throughout the day
Thursday. There is some disagreement as to how deeply into CA the
trough will go, but either way this one does not look to generate
any significant precip. Official forecast has less than 0.10" across
the Sierra and up to 0.25" for parts of NV for Thursday. The low
will exit again into the Four Corners Friday as a brief ridge builds
back in over the eastern Pacific returning dry conditions ahead of
yet another low from the Gulf of Alaska late in the weekend. With
all this troughing, temperatures will remain near to about 10 or so
deg F below seasonal normals fluctuating a bit between systems.

The afternoon forecast used some of the 18z HRRR for the next 6-12
hours to capture convective showers then leaned on WPC guidance and
occasionally the 12z GFS/ECMWF to slow down the late weekend system
(det models and latest ensembles are trending a bit slower with the
initial onset of showers). All in all changes from the morning were
on the order of 0.10-0.25" in either direction for the 6 day window.
Majority of the precip is still anticipated over the Smith Basin at
1-1.75".