Hydrometeorological Discussion National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA 725 AM PDT Mon May 5 2025 ...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER SE CA/SRN NV TODAY AND TOMORROW AS ONE LOW EXITS AND ANOTHER MOVES INTO NV FROM THE NORTH... ...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK... .METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (MON AM - SUN AM)... An upper low continues to exit the region into AZ this morning leaving behind about 0.75-1" PW of moisture over much of srn CA. 12z sounding out of San Diego recorded just over 1" PW at the airport well above the 90th percentile for the date. Lingering moisture along with some troughing has resulted in scattered showers over srn CA. Current radar shows a number of echos over the San Bernadino Mountains rotating in from the northeast across srn NV/se CA. Observations already show about 0.50-1" of precip over that area overnight. Increased the QPF there for the current period as showers persist. The rest of today, the low will continue to exit to the east though lingering moisture and troughing will generate additional showers over srn/se CA and srn NV with possible thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Much of NV and srn CA will also remain below normal for afternoon high temperatures thanks to the influence of the exiting low, anomalies about -5 to -15 deg F. Behind the low, high pressure will build into the PacNW and nw CA raising afternoon highs for much of nrn/central CA to 5 to 10 deg F above normal while keeping conditions dry. Models then have another smaller low dropping into ne NV from ID into early Tuesday heading southwest through the state as it's caught up in the rotation of the previous low then over NM. This second smaller low may also drop some showers over NV and se CA Tuesday into Wednesday as it passes through along with isolated thunderstorms. Dry conditions and above normal temperatures for areas away from the low on Tuesday. Wednesday, the ridge will shift further into CA/NV as its shoved our way by a trough approaching the PacNW. High pressure will remain overhead the rest of the week allowing dry conditions to persist and temperatures to rise to above normal across the region. Expect anomalies of +5 to +15 deg F with Friday/Saturday being the warmest days. Some areas will approach +20 deg F above normal. Troughing will reach the coast Saturday morning gradually moving overhead this weekend. Not expecting any precip out of the trough thus far, but a couple showers over the Smith Basin will be possible into Sunday morning. Most of the QPF for the period is expected today with precip diminishing tomorrow. Low confidence in amounts as the precip will largely be convective. Expect locally higher amounts than forecast in any thunderstorms. Freezing levels 9.5-12.5 kft across CA through Tuesday. Please Note: This product may NOT be routinely updated this summer. Please refer to the following product issued by the CNRFC www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/Daily-Briefing for a graphical summary of weather and hydrologic conditions. |