...LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE N COAST THIS MORNING DUE TO A COLD
FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
...PATTERN SHIFT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING MOVES IN BRINGING NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (WED AM - TUE AM)...

A cold front remains stretched over the north coast and through the
Klamath Basin into eastern OR as the upper ridge begins to gradually
shift inland. This front brought less than 0.10" to most of the
north coast since yesterday with just under 0.50" over the Smith
Basin. Some lingering showers over those areas possible the rest of
the morning but with minimal additional amounts. Influence from
strong high pressure will keep temperatures away from the cold front
above normal to around 10 to 25 deg F today. Troughing up north will
flatten the ridge and keep pushing it further inland Thursday
allowing for some moderation of the warmer temperatures, but still
up to 20 deg F above normal over the Sierra and srn CA/NV. High
pressure will expand back up the coast Friday as the troughing moves
further inland with more widespread anomalies of +10 to +20 deg F.

Over the weekend, a low descending from the Gulf of Alaska will
begin a gradual pattern shift away from this persistent ridge. Dry
conditions and well above normal temperatures will stick around
Saturday and Sunday before being replaced by a broader troughing
pattern on Monday. Additionally, models have a surface low and cold
front approaching nrn CA. This should mean a return to normal to
even below normal temperatures early next week and some
precipitation as well. The majority of ensemble members at Arcata
are showing precip early to mid next week with a decent amount
predicting accumulations even over Sacramento. CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day
outlooks now predict above normal chances of precip over the region
with near normal temperatures for most of CA/NV.

Therefore, there is precip in the forecast for Monday. Went with a
blend of the ECMWF/WPC/NBM to slow down the arrival timing of the
showers given that most of the ensembles and det models do not have
precip until about 12-18z Monday while the NBM was a bit quicker.
QPF for Monday looks like 0.10-0.50" for the nrn CA coast/Shasta/nrn
Sierra, and generally 0.10" or less for most of the Bay Area, srn
Sierra and Sac Valley. Some uncertainty in this time frame as
ensembles show a decent spread over the north coast of about 0 to
1.50" for Monday. Freezing levels Monday starting out at 10-12.5 kft
across the Sierra lowering to 7.5-10.5 kft in the evening.

Please Note: This product may NOT be routinely updated.
Please refer to the following product issued by the CNRFC
www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/Daily-Briefing for a graphical summary of
weather and hydrologic conditions.