Hydrometeorological Discussion National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA 655 AM PST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY... ...POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL AREAS MIDWEEK... .METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (FRI AM - THU AM)... The latest setup shows an upr low spinning west of northern Baja...in the vicinity of 30N/120W...while a secondary disturbance is diving southeast from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Basin through the upstream side of the broad upr trof encompassing much of the nation this morning. Over the eastern Pacific...a narrow wavelength upr ridge is currently situated between 130W and 140W extending northward into the Gulf of Alaska. Overall...look for the upr low and eventually the s/wv trof moving toward the region from the north to generate some scattered light precip mainly over coastal southern CA and eastern NV along with the potential of some showers across the far southern Sierra as well. Given the limited available moisture...amounts will be near or less than 0.10-inch. By the latter half of the weekend...the upr low will have shifted to the east-northeast quickly followed by the s/wv trof swinging across the Great Basin. In their wake...look for the upr ridge to slide over the west coast...which will bring dry conditions to the region for Sunday and Monday. Then by Tuesday into Wednesday...models are struggling with a potential system moving toward the west coast. Yesterday...the GFS was bringing precip down along the northern CA coast for Tuesday into Wednesday...but now takes the majority of the forcing north of the region across the Pacific Northwest with only some rather light precip over far northwest CA. The EC and GEM are forming a cutoff low west of the SF Bay Area that splits off from the general upr trof...and then spreads mainly light precip across portions of northern/central CA. Low confidence toward the end of the forecast follows close to the latest WPC QPF and NBM...which keeps light precip mainly along coastal sections between the CA/OR border and Big Sur coast. Amounts at this time are near or less than 0.10-inch. Please Note: This product may NOT be routinely updated. Please refer to the following product issued by the CNRFC www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/Daily-Briefing for a graphical summary of weather and hydrologic conditions. |