Hydrometeorological Discussion National Weather Service / California Nevada RFC / Sacramento CA 1240 PM PST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...VERY SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY... ...POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK... .METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (FRI PM - THU AM)... For the short-term...minimal changes with scattered light precip expected across coastal southern CA and portions of the Great Basin with two features impacting the region. The first is an upr low spinning just west of northern Baja...which is poised to become an open wave and increase its forward speed over the the next 24 hours...as it makes its way across the southern Plains. The other is with a weak s/wv trof dropping southeast from the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Basin on the upstream side of the broad upr trof encompassing much of the nation. An upr ridge will slide across the west coast for the latter half of the weekend into Monday...bringing dry conditions to the region. This feature is expected to be transitory with an upr trof moving toward the eastern Pacific and west coast for the middle of the week. Unfortunately...the 23/12Z models are struggling with the timing and positioning of this feature...which will determine when and where the potential for mainly light to locally moderate precip occurs. For now...followed close to the latest WPC QPF...which does spread the best precip along coastal areas between the lower Russian River basin south through the SF Bay Area and down to the Big Sur coast. This is all in the Day 6 time period (Wednesday)...and is a low confidence forecast. |