...DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THE REGION SITS UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE...
...CHANCES FOR HEAVIER MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP FRIDAY AND OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE STORM TRACK SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH...

.METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (SHORT TERM: TUE PM - MON AM)...

Dry conditions are still expected through Thursday evening across
the region as high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific and into
CA/NV. A pair of systems remain on track to bring more widespread
precipitation to the region Friday into Saturday and Sunday and/or
Monday. Decent ensemble spread and timing issues persist. 24 hour
QPF spread at Arcata for Friday/Saturday is about 1-3" and 0.10-2+"
for Sunday/Monday. Looking further south, 24 hr QPF spread at LAX is
0-1" and 0-2+" respectively. The GFS and ECMWF continue to disagree
on timing with the ECMWF remaining the quicker model. The ECMWF has
slowed down compared to the 00z run, particularly for the weekend
system. This is reflected in the QPF for Sunday which was further
trimmed back to slow down the progression of precip. Otherwise,
adjustments were mainly upwards over the terrain areas, the Bay
Area, and southern CA by about 0.10-0.75". Expect things to continue
to change, particularly as models dial in better on the orographics
as we get closer to the weekend. The afternoon forecast blended in
updated WPC guidance, the latest NBM, and the latest ECMWF. Also
continued to utilize the west WRF to bump up values over some of the
mountainous areas. QPF through 12z Mon: 1.50-4.50" Sonoma County
northward along the coast (4-5.50" Smith Basin), 2.50-4.50" Shasta,
1-3.30" Sierra, 0.50-1.25" Bay Area, 0.25-0.75" central/srn ca coast
(up to 1.50" Santa Cruz mountains, up to 1.75" Big Sur coast), 0.10-
0.75+" down the valleys (up to 1.25" closer to the foothills), and
up to an inch over the Transverse.

Please Note: This product may NOT be routinely updated.
Please refer to the following product issued by the CNRFC
www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/Daily-Briefing for a graphical summary of
weather and hydrologic conditions.